Barnet 6–2 Gillingham: Result & Stats | League Two

Barnet

FT

6 – 2

HT: 5 – 1

Gillingham

C. Stead 70', 30', 16', 15', 6'

R. Crichlow-Noble 45'

J. Andrews 90'

S. Booth 13'

4/25/2026

League Two · Round 45The Hive Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Barnet54%

×Draw22%

Gillingham24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarnetExpected goals in this matchGillingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.18

Barnet

1.90

Gillingham

1.18

Barnet creates 61% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

2.12

creates per match

1.05

1.31

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Barnet

2.12

Gillingham

1.05

allows per match

Barnet

1.31

Gillingham

1.68

-0.01on par

finishing

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

Barnet-0.01on par

Gillingham-0.32scores less

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnet ↓

Gillingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Barnet or draw

76%

Barnet or Gillingham

78%

Draw or Gillingham

46%

Winning margin

Barnet wins by 2+

31%

Gillingham wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Barnet 1+ goals

85%

Barnet 2+ goals

56%

Barnet 3+ goals

29%

Gillingham 1+ goals

69%

Gillingham 2+ goals

33%

Gillingham 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Barnet (draw refunded)

70%

Gillingham (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnet at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.31 · 9 matches

Gillingham away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.68 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnet attack 2.12 + Gillingham defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.90

Gillingham attack 1.05 + Barnet defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Barnet scores more

54%

level

22%

Gillingham scores more

24%

Barnet at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Barnet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

C. Stead

Barnet · M

10.0

Match Events

6'

C. Stead↳ R. Glover

13'

S. Booth↳ B. Dack

15'

C. Stead↳ K. Tshimanga

16'

C. Stead↳ R. Crichlow-Noble

30'

C. Stead

37'

Conor Masterson

43'

Kabongo Tshimanga

45'

R. Crichlow-Noble↳ R. Glover

46'

J. Williams← H. Waldock

46'

J. Andrews← G. McCleary

46'

T. Akomeah← C. Masterson

66'

K. Smith← D. Collinge

67'

B. Winterburn← A. Hartigan

67'

D. Jaiyesimi← K. Tshimanga

67'

70'

73'

74'

83'

83'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarnetGillingham

Overview

62%Possession38%

23Total Shots4

3.00Expected Goals (xG)1.05

9Corners3

10Fouls13

Shots

23Total Shots4

12On Target2

8Off Target1

3Blocked1

19Inside Box4

4Outside Box0

Passing

62%Possession38%

423Total Passes264

330Accurate Passes166

78%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

10Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

6Offsides2