GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF

GIF Sundsvall

Preview

11:00

Falkenbergs FF

7/26/2026

Superettan · Round 16NP3 Arena

Big match

40%

GIF Sundsvall

model favours

40%22%37%

GIF Sundsvall score first in only 12% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

67%

over 2.5 goals

68%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

GIF Sundsvall40%

×Draw22%

Falkenbergs FF37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GIF SundsvallExpected goals in this matchFalkenbergs FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.70

GIF Sundsvall

1.77

Falkenbergs FF

1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.62

creates per match

1.92

1.48

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

GIF Sundsvall

1.62

Falkenbergs FF

1.92

allows per match

GIF Sundsvall

1.48

Falkenbergs FF

1.91

-0.37scores less than expected

finishing

-0.35scores less than expected

finishing

GIF Sundsvall-0.37scores less

Falkenbergs FF-0.35scores less

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GIF Sundsvall ↓

Falkenbergs FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

GIF Sundsvall or draw

63%

GIF Sundsvall or Falkenbergs FF

78%

Draw or Falkenbergs FF

60%

Winning margin

GIF Sundsvall wins by 2+

21%

Falkenbergs FF wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

GIF Sundsvall 1+ goals

83%

GIF Sundsvall 2+ goals

53%

GIF Sundsvall 3+ goals

26%

Falkenbergs FF 1+ goals

82%

Falkenbergs FF 2+ goals

51%

Falkenbergs FF 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

GIF Sundsvall (draw refunded)

52%

Falkenbergs FF (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GIF Sundsvall at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.48 · 8 matches

Falkenbergs FF away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.91 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GIF Sundsvall attack 1.62 + Falkenbergs FF defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.77

Falkenbergs FF attack 1.92 + GIF Sundsvall defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

GIF Sundsvall scores more

40%

level

22%

Falkenbergs FF scores more

37%

GIF Sundsvall at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "GIF Sundsvall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Falkenbergs FF have scored in 14 games running
Both teams score in 100% of Falkenbergs FF’s matches
Falkenbergs FF score first in only 21% of matches
Both teams score in 77% of GIF Sundsvall’s matches
GIF Sundsvall sit 16, Falkenbergs FF 1 in the table
79% of Falkenbergs FF’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

GIF Sundsvall

Defensively solid

Falkenbergs FF

Balanced

48%Possession46%

82%Pass accuracy80%

9.3Shots9.7

1.18xGBiggest gap1.61

GIF SundsvallFalkenbergs FF

Head-to-head

7 previous meetings

1

GIF Sundsvall

3

Draws

3

Falkenbergs FF

Avg goals: 2BTTS: 43%

0–10–30–01–11–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Sundsvall

LLLLW

FF

LWLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff