Falkenbergs FF 1–1 GIF Sundsvall: Result & Stats

Falkenbergs FF

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

GIF Sundsvall

A. Wede 62'

L. Hallenius 48'

8/7/2021

Superettan · Round 15Falcon Alkoholfri Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Falkenbergs FF44%

×Draw28%

GIF Sundsvall28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Falkenbergs FFExpected goals in this matchGIF Sundsvall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.98

Falkenbergs FF

1.29

GIF Sundsvall

0.98

Falkenbergs FF creates 32% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

1.33

creates per match

0.91

1.05

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Falkenbergs FF

1.33

GIF Sundsvall

0.91

allows per match

Falkenbergs FF

1.05

GIF Sundsvall

1.24

+0.42scores more than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Falkenbergs FF+0.42scores more

GIF Sundsvall-0.06on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Falkenbergs FF ↓

GIF Sundsvall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Falkenbergs FF or draw

72%

Falkenbergs FF or GIF Sundsvall

72%

Draw or GIF Sundsvall

56%

Winning margin

Falkenbergs FF wins by 2+

20%

GIF Sundsvall wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Falkenbergs FF 1+ goals

72%

Falkenbergs FF 2+ goals

37%

Falkenbergs FF 3+ goals

14%

GIF Sundsvall 1+ goals

62%

GIF Sundsvall 2+ goals

26%

GIF Sundsvall 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Falkenbergs FF (draw refunded)

61%

GIF Sundsvall (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Falkenbergs FF at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.05 · 8 matches

GIF Sundsvall away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.24 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Falkenbergs FF attack 1.33 + GIF Sundsvall defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

GIF Sundsvall attack 0.91 + Falkenbergs FF defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Falkenbergs FF scores more

44%

level

28%

GIF Sundsvall scores more

28%

Falkenbergs FF at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Falkenbergs FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

K. Kizito← M. Nilsson

46'

A. Eriksson← M. Özen

48'

L. Hallenius

56'

Samuel Adrian

60'

O. Hintsa← K. Söderström

60'

T. Stenshagen← D. Myrestam

60'

L. Nåvik← P. Pichkah

62'

A. Wede

65'

Erik Andersson

77'

A. Palmlöv← A. Ekström

78'

Linus Hallenius

85'

T. Karlsson← L. Öhman

89'

U. Bala← A. Wede

90+1'

J. Bengtsson← E. Andersson

Statistics

FalkenbergsGIF

Overview

4Corners4

Discipline

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0