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GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF — Superettan 2026

GIF Sundsvall
GIF Sundsvall
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Falkenbergs FF
Falkenbergs FF
D. Myrestam 15'
L. Dahl 10'
11/2/2021SuperettanSuperettan · Round 27NP3 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

GIF Sundsvall40%
×Draw22%
Falkenbergs FF37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GIF Sundsvall
1.77
Falkenbergs FF
1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

GIF Sundsvall
1.62
Falkenbergs FF
1.92

allows per match

GIF Sundsvall
1.48
Falkenbergs FF
1.91

finishing

GIF Sundsvall-0.37scores less
Falkenbergs FF-0.35scores less

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GIF Sundsvall ↓

Falkenbergs FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

GIF Sundsvall or draw
63%
GIF Sundsvall or Falkenbergs FF
78%
Draw or Falkenbergs FF
60%

Winning margin

GIF Sundsvall wins by 2+
21%
Falkenbergs FF wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

GIF Sundsvall 1+ goals
83%
GIF Sundsvall 2+ goals
53%
GIF Sundsvall 3+ goals
26%
Falkenbergs FF 1+ goals
82%
Falkenbergs FF 2+ goals
51%
Falkenbergs FF 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

GIF Sundsvall (draw refunded)
52%
Falkenbergs FF (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GIF Sundsvall at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.48 · 8 matches

Falkenbergs FF away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.91 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GIF Sundsvall attack 1.62 + Falkenbergs FF defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.77

Falkenbergs FF attack 1.92 + GIF Sundsvall defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

GIF Sundsvall scores more
40%
level
22%
Falkenbergs FF scores more
37%

GIF Sundsvall at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "GIF Sundsvall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
L. Dahl
15'
D. Myrestam
65'
Daniel Stensson
76'
P. Pichkah← L. Nåvik
88'
N. Dahlström← R. Lundström
90+2'
Samuel Adrian
90'
C. Carlsson← L. Dahl

Possession

52%GIF

Shots

23GIF

Statistics

GIFFalkenbergs
Overview
52%Possession48%
23Total Shots4
10Corners5
12Fouls5
Shots
23Total Shots4
9On Target2
14Off Target2
Passing
52%Possession48%
Goalkeeping
1Saves7
Discipline
12Fouls5
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
2Offsides0

Superettan: GIF Sundsvall 1–1 Falkenbergs FF

GIF Sundsvall and Falkenbergs FF drew 1-1 in Superettan on November 2, 2021.

Goals: L. Dahl (10'), D. Myrestam (15').

GIF Sundsvall controlled possession (52%) and registered 23 shots to 4.

The match was played at NP3 Arena in Sundsvall.