Falkenbergs FF 3–0 GIF Sundsvall: Result & Stats

Falkenbergs FF

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

GIF Sundsvall

V. Ekblom 56', 25'

N. Bertilsson 3'

9/19/2025

Superettan · Round 23Falcon Alkoholfri Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Falkenbergs FF41%

×Draw29%

GIF Sundsvall30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Falkenbergs FFExpected goals in this matchGIF Sundsvall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.01

Falkenbergs FF

1.24

GIF Sundsvall

1.01

Falkenbergs FF creates 23% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

1.24

creates per match

0.91

1.11

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Falkenbergs FF

1.24

GIF Sundsvall

0.91

allows per match

Falkenbergs FF

1.11

GIF Sundsvall

1.24

+0.43scores more than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Falkenbergs FF+0.43scores more

GIF Sundsvall-0.06on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Falkenbergs FF ↓

GIF Sundsvall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Falkenbergs FF or draw

70%

Falkenbergs FF or GIF Sundsvall

71%

Draw or GIF Sundsvall

59%

Winning margin

Falkenbergs FF wins by 2+

18%

GIF Sundsvall wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Falkenbergs FF 1+ goals

71%

Falkenbergs FF 2+ goals

35%

Falkenbergs FF 3+ goals

13%

GIF Sundsvall 1+ goals

64%

GIF Sundsvall 2+ goals

27%

GIF Sundsvall 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Falkenbergs FF (draw refunded)

58%

GIF Sundsvall (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Falkenbergs FF at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

GIF Sundsvall away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.24 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Falkenbergs FF attack 1.24 + GIF Sundsvall defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.24

GIF Sundsvall attack 0.91 + Falkenbergs FF defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Falkenbergs FF scores more

41%

level

29%

GIF Sundsvall scores more

30%

Falkenbergs FF at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Falkenbergs FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

N. Bertilsson↳ L. Sibelius

25'

V. Ekblom↳ N. Bertilsson

46'

T. Sandberg← M. Jelassi

56'

V. Ekblom↳ O. Lindberg

60'

L. Shahin← V. Ekblom

71'

D. Olsson← M. Palomino

71'

A. Bahtijar← M. Hallin

73'

N. Hansson← T. Stalheden

73'

H. Kallstrom← L. Sibelius

73'

S. Hindi← G. Aguda

79'

Nikolas Talo

81'

J. Bjornler← M. Sandberg

81'

P. Engblom← Carlos

86'

I. Shears← A. Andersson

Falkenbergs4-4-2

GIF4-4-2

29

▼

Carlos

15

▼

9

6

23

8

▼

Palomino

24

Talo

18

Forsberg

30

▼

Hallin

3

▼

Jelassi

13

Henareh

1

Andersson

8

⚽A

Bertilsso

23

Salo

4

▼

Stalheden

18

Borgstrom

17

A

▼

Sibelius

28

Nilsson

30

▼

Aguda

19

A

Lindberg

21

▼

Andersson

22

⚽2

▼

Ekblom

Manager: Christoffer Tobias Andersson

60'▲L. Shahin←▼V. Ekblom

73'▲N. Hansson←▼T. Stalheden

73'▲H. Kallstrom←▼L. Sibelius

73'▲S. Hindi←▼G. Aguda

86'▲I. Shears←▼A. Andersson

Falkenbergs FF substitutes

31Lillienberg2Johansson5Hansson10Shahin14Shears16Kallstrom26Hindi

Manager: Erol Ates

46'▲T. Sandberg←▼M. Jelassi

71'▲D. Olsson←▼M. Palomino

71'▲A. Bahtijar←▼M. Hallin

81'▲J. Bjornler←▼M. Sandberg

81'▲P. Engblom←▼Carlos

GIF Sundsvall substitutes

35Roding5Olsson7Sandberg11Tammivuori20Bjornler21Engblom27Bahtijar