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Gibraltar vs Georgia — Euro Championship 2024

Gibraltar
Gibraltar
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Georgia
Georgia
R. Chipolina 74'
L. Casciaro 66'
G. Kvilitaia 84'
J. Kankava 21'
G. Kharaishvili 10'
10/15/2019Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Round - 8Victoria Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gibraltar30%
×Draw21%
Georgia49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gibraltar
1.67
Georgia
2.17

Georgia creates 30% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Gibraltar
0.67
Georgia
1.00

allows per match

Gibraltar
3.33
Georgia
2.67

finishing

Gibraltar+0.00on par
Georgia+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gibraltar ↓

Georgia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Gibraltar or draw
51%
Gibraltar or Georgia
79%
Draw or Georgia
70%

Winning margin

Gibraltar wins by 2+
14%
Georgia wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Gibraltar 1+ goals
81%
Gibraltar 2+ goals
50%
Gibraltar 3+ goals
23%
Georgia 1+ goals
89%
Georgia 2+ goals
64%
Georgia 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Gibraltar (draw refunded)
38%
Georgia (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gibraltar at home — creates 0.67, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

Georgia away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gibraltar attack 0.67 + Georgia defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Georgia attack 1.00 + Gibraltar defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Gibraltar scores more
30%
level
21%
Georgia scores more
49%

Georgia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Georgia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
L. ShengeliaGeorgiaGeorgia · M
8.1

Match Events

10'
G. Kharaishvili↳ L. Shengelia
21'
J. Kankava↳ J. Ananidze
45'
Mohamed Badr Hassan
49'
Davit Khocholava
56'
Jack Sergeant
61'
O. Kiteishvili← G. Kharaishvili
66'
L. Casciaro↳ E. Britto
68'
G. Kvilitaia← E. Lobjanidze
74'
R. Chipolina
81'
Andrew Hernandez← M. Hassan
82'
E. Barnett← J. Chipolina
84'
G. Kvilitaia↳ L. Shengelia
90'
A. Pons← L. Walker
90+3'
S. Kverkvelia← G. Navalovski

Possession

34%Gibraltar

Shots

9Gibraltar

Pass accuracy

47%Gibraltar

Statistics

GibraltarGeorgia
Overview
34%Possession66%
9Total Shots19
5Corners1
11Fouls10
Shots
9Total Shots19
5On Target6
3Off Target7
1Blocked6
5Inside Box11
4Outside Box8
Passing
34%Possession66%
308Total Passes603
239Accurate Passes529
78%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls10
2Yellow Cards1
2Offsides5

Match Recap: Gibraltar vs Georgia

Georgia beat Gibraltar 3-2 in Euro Championship on October 15, 2019.

Goals: G. Kharaishvili (10'), J. Kankava (21'), L. Casciaro (66'), R. Chipolina (74'), G. Kvilitaia (84').

Georgia controlled possession (66%) and registered 19 shots to 9.

The match was played at Victoria Stadium in Gibraltar.