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Georgia vs Gibraltar — Euro Championship 2024

Georgia
Georgia
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gibraltar
Gibraltar
V. Arveladze 76' (pen)
G. Papunashvili 59'
V. Gvilia 30'
6/7/2019Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Round - 3Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Georgia84%
×Draw13%
Gibraltar3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Georgia
2.31
Gibraltar
0.25

Georgia creates 824% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Georgia
0.88
Gibraltar
0.00

allows per match

Georgia
0.50
Gibraltar
3.75

finishing

Georgia+0.00on par
Gibraltar+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

80%No
  • No80
  • Yes20

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Georgia ↓

Gibraltar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–021%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–016%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (21%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Georgia or draw
97%
Georgia or Gibraltar
87%
Draw or Gibraltar
16%

Winning margin

Georgia wins by 2+
60%
Gibraltar wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Georgia 1+ goals
90%
Georgia 2+ goals
67%
Georgia 3+ goals
40%
Gibraltar 1+ goals
22%
Gibraltar 2+ goals
3%
Gibraltar 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Georgia (draw refunded)
97%
Gibraltar (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Georgia at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Gibraltar away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Georgia attack 0.88 + Gibraltar defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 2.31

Gibraltar attack 0.00 + Georgia defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Georgia scores more
84%
level
13%
Gibraltar scores more
3%

Georgia at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Georgia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
N. KvekveskiriGeorgiaGeorgia · M
8.3

Match Events

30'
V. Gvilia↳ O. Kakabadze
45'
Jaba Kankava
47'
G. Papunashvili← K. Kvaratskhelia
50'
Jack Sergeant
59'
G. Papunashvili↳ V. Gvilia
62'
Jayce Mascarenhas-Olivero
65'
A. Pons← L. Casciaro
72'
O. Kiteishvili← G. Merebashvili
75'
Roy Alan Chipolina
76'
V. ArveladzePenalty
77'
L. Mchedlidze← J. Kankava
77'
J. Coombes← A. Bardon
86'
E. Barnett← L. Annesley

Possession

75%Georgia

Shots

23Georgia

Pass accuracy

58%Georgia

Statistics

GeorgiaGibraltar
Overview
75%Possession25%
23Total Shots1
7Corners1
9Fouls11
Shots
23Total Shots1
12On Target1
7Off Target0
4Blocked0
11Inside Box0
12Outside Box1
Passing
75%Possession25%
715Total Passes232
635Accurate Passes150
89%Pass Accuracy65%
Goalkeeping
1Saves9
Discipline
9Fouls11
1Yellow Cards3
1Offsides0

Euro Championship: Georgia 3–0 Gibraltar

Georgia beat Gibraltar 3-0 in Euro Championship on June 7, 2019.

Goals: V. Gvilia (30'), G. Papunashvili (59'), V. Arveladze (76' pen).

Georgia controlled possession (75%) and registered 23 shots to 1.

The match was played at Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena in Tbilisi.