Georgia 4–0 Gibraltar: Result & Stats

Georgia

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Gibraltar

V. Qazaishvili 88'

G. Mikautadze 87'

G. Kashia 33'

K. Kvaratskhelia 12'

6/2/2022

UEFA Nations League · League C - 1Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Georgia71%

×Draw20%

Gibraltar8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GeorgiaExpected goals in this matchGibraltar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.47

Georgia

1.88

Gibraltar

0.47

Georgia creates 300% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

1.92

creates per match

0.33

0.62

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Georgia

1.92

Gibraltar

0.33

allows per match

Georgia

0.62

Gibraltar

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Georgia+0.00on par

Gibraltar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Georgia ↓

Gibraltar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Georgia or draw

92%

Georgia or Gibraltar

80%

Draw or Gibraltar

29%

Winning margin

Georgia wins by 2+

44%

Gibraltar wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Georgia 1+ goals

85%

Georgia 2+ goals

56%

Georgia 3+ goals

29%

Gibraltar 1+ goals

37%

Gibraltar 2+ goals

8%

Gibraltar 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Georgia (draw refunded)

89%

Gibraltar (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Georgia at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Gibraltar away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Georgia attack 1.92 + Gibraltar defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.88

Gibraltar attack 0.33 + Georgia defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Georgia scores more

71%

level

20%

Gibraltar scores more

8%

Georgia at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Georgia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

S. Lobzhanidze

Georgia · M

8.9

Match Events

12'

K. Kvaratskhelia↳ G. Tsitaishvili

32'

Ethan Jolley

33'

G. Kashia↳ K. Kvaratskhelia

36'

Giorgi Chakvetadze

36'

Ethan Britto

40'

G. Giorbelidze← G. Tsitaishvili

44'

Guram Giorbelidze

46'

G. Torrilla← K. Ronan

46'

J. Coombes← R. Styche

63'

O. Kiteishvili← G. Aburjania

63'

M. Kobakhidze← G. Kashia

63'

V. Qazaishvili← K. Kvaratskhelia

66'

A. Mouelhi← L. Annesley

66'

J. Valarino← E. Jolley

73'

A. Hernandez← L. Walker

78'

N. Kvekveskiri← G. Chakvetadze

80'

Lee Casciaro

87'

G. Mikautadze↳ S. Lobzhanidze

88'

V. Qazaishvili↳ S. Lobzhanidze

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GeorgiaGibraltar

Overview

69%Possession31%

28Total Shots1

8Corners0

12Fouls7

Shots

28Total Shots1

13On Target0

10Off Target1

5Blocked0

19Inside Box1

9Outside Box0

Passing

69%Possession31%

665Total Passes289

593Accurate Passes207

89%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

0Saves8

Discipline

12Fouls7

2Yellow Cards3

3Offsides0