Getafe 0–1 Atletico Madrid: Result & Stats

Getafe

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Atletico Madrid

D. Duarte 82' (OG)

11/23/2025

La Liga · Round 13Coliseum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 36+ matches

Getafe39%

×Draw28%

Atletico Madrid33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GetafeExpected goals in this matchAtletico Madrid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.11

Getafe

1.24

Atletico Madrid

1.11

Getafe creates 12% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 36 away

1.03

creates per match

1.18

1.05

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Getafe

1.03

Atletico Madrid

1.18

allows per match

Getafe

1.05

Atletico Madrid

1.45

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Getafe-0.14scores less

Atletico Madrid+0.13scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Getafe ↓

Atletico Madrid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Getafe or draw

67%

Getafe or Atletico Madrid

72%

Draw or Atletico Madrid

61%

Winning margin

Getafe wins by 2+

17%

Atletico Madrid wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Getafe 1+ goals

71%

Getafe 2+ goals

35%

Getafe 3+ goals

13%

Atletico Madrid 1+ goals

67%

Atletico Madrid 2+ goals

30%

Atletico Madrid 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Getafe (draw refunded)

54%

Atletico Madrid (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Getafe at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.05 · 38 matches

Atletico Madrid away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.45 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Getafe attack 1.03 + Atletico Madrid defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.24

Atletico Madrid attack 1.18 + Getafe defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Getafe scores more

39%

level

28%

Atletico Madrid scores more

33%

Getafe at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Getafe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

A. Griezmann← M. Llorente

40'

Abdelkabir Abqar

49'

Julián Alvarez

57'

José María Giménez

59'

G. Raspadori← J. Alvarez

59'

A. Sorloth← Koke

69'

C. Gallagher← M. Ruggeri

69'

D. Hancko← N. Gonzalez

76'

C. da Costa← A. Liso

77'

Kiko Femenia← A. Abqar

79'

Mario Martín

82'

D. DuarteOwn goal

86'

Alex Sancris← M. Martin

87'

Juanmi← J. Iglesias

90+1'

Juan Musso

90'

Javier Munoz← L. Milla

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GetafeAtletico

Overview

41%Possession59%

9Total Shots13

0.70Expected Goals (xG)0.99

6Corners7

9Fouls17

Shots

9Total Shots13

1On Target6

4Off Target2

4Blocked5

5Inside Box10

4Outside Box3

Passing

41%Possession59%

300Total Passes445

208Accurate Passes360

69%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

0.01Goals Prevented0.01

Discipline

9Fouls17

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides5