Atletico Madrid 4–3 Getafe: Result & Stats

Atletico Madrid

FT

4 – 3

HT: 3 – 3

Getafe

Hermoso 89'

Á. Correa 45+4', 20'

Matheus Cunha 27'

E. Ünal 42' (pen), 37' (pen)

Borja Mayoral 30'

2/12/2022

La Liga · Round 24Estadio Wanda Metropolitano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 40+ matches

Atletico Madrid57%

×Draw24%

Getafe19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico MadridExpected goals in this matchGetafe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

0.87

Atletico Madrid

1.72

Getafe

0.87

Atletico Madrid creates 98% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 40 away

2.01

creates per match

0.86

0.88

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Atletico Madrid

2.01

Getafe

0.86

allows per match

Atletico Madrid

0.88

Getafe

1.44

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

Atletico Madrid+0.22scores more

Getafe-0.16scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Madrid ↓

Getafe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Atletico Madrid or draw

81%

Atletico Madrid or Getafe

76%

Draw or Getafe

43%

Winning margin

Atletico Madrid wins by 2+

32%

Getafe wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Atletico Madrid 1+ goals

82%

Atletico Madrid 2+ goals

51%

Atletico Madrid 3+ goals

25%

Getafe 1+ goals

58%

Getafe 2+ goals

22%

Getafe 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Atletico Madrid (draw refunded)

75%

Getafe (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Madrid at home — creates 2.01, concedes 0.88 · 40 matches

Getafe away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.44 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Madrid attack 2.01 + Getafe defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.72

Getafe attack 0.86 + Atletico Madrid defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Atletico Madrid scores more

57%

level

24%

Getafe scores more

19%

Atletico Madrid at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Atletico Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Á. Correa

Atletico Madrid · M

8.0

Match Events

-5'

3'

15'

20'

20'

22'

27'

30'

Borja Mayoral↳ J. Jankto

37'

E. ÜnalPenalty

42'

Óscar RodríguezPenalty awarded

42'

E. ÜnalPenalty

45+2'

45'

45+4'

55'

58'

60'

74'

João Félix← Matheus Cunha

74'

Š. Vrsaljko← Á. Correa

74'

R. De Paul← G. Kondogbia

76'

Mata← S. Mitrović

81'

J. Silva← J. Jankto

81'

Gonzalo Villar← Óscar Rodríguez

89'

Hermoso↳ João Félix

90+5'

Jonathan Silva

90+2'

H. Herrera← T. Lemar

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoGetafe

Overview

50%Possession50%

11Total Shots10

5Corners4

18Fouls17

Shots

11Total Shots10

7On Target4

3Off Target3

1Blocked3

7Inside Box6

4Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

415Total Passes407

319Accurate Passes307

77%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

18Fouls17

4Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

Match Recap: Atletico Madrid vs Getafe

Atletico Madrid beat Getafe 4-3 in La Liga on February 12, 2022.

Goals: Á. Correa (20', 45+4'), Matheus Cunha (27'), Borja Mayoral (30'), E. Ünal (37' pen, 42' pen), Hermoso (89').

Atletico Madrid controlled possession (50%) and registered 11 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Wanda Metropolitano in Madrid.

Atletico Madrid vs Getafe — La Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Atletico Madrid vs Getafe