Atletico Madrid 1–1 Getafe: Result & Stats

Atletico Madrid

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Getafe

Á. Correa 60'

E. Ünal 83' (pen)

2/4/2023

La Liga · Round 20Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 40+ matches

Atletico Madrid57%

×Draw24%

Getafe19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico MadridExpected goals in this matchGetafe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

0.87

Atletico Madrid

1.72

Getafe

0.87

Atletico Madrid creates 98% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 40 away

2.01

creates per match

0.86

0.88

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Atletico Madrid

2.01

Getafe

0.86

allows per match

Atletico Madrid

0.88

Getafe

1.44

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

Atletico Madrid+0.22scores more

Getafe-0.16scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Madrid ↓

Getafe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Atletico Madrid or draw

81%

Atletico Madrid or Getafe

76%

Draw or Getafe

43%

Winning margin

Atletico Madrid wins by 2+

32%

Getafe wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Atletico Madrid 1+ goals

82%

Atletico Madrid 2+ goals

51%

Atletico Madrid 3+ goals

25%

Getafe 1+ goals

58%

Getafe 2+ goals

22%

Getafe 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Atletico Madrid (draw refunded)

75%

Getafe (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Madrid at home — creates 2.01, concedes 0.88 · 40 matches

Getafe away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.44 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Madrid attack 2.01 + Getafe defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.72

Getafe attack 0.86 + Atletico Madrid defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Atletico Madrid scores more

57%

level

24%

Getafe scores more

19%

Atletico Madrid at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Atletico Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

O. Alderete

Getafe · D

7.7

Match Events

2'

34'

45+2'

57'

60'

61'

Marcos Llorente← T. Lemar

61'

Y. Carrasco← Á. Correa

62'

Ángel CorreaGoal confirmed

72'

Gonzalo Villar← Carles Aleñá

72'

Ángel Algobia← Luis Milla

75'

Saúl← Álvaro Morata

77'

M. El Haddadi← M. Arambarri

81'

Saúl Ñíguez

83'

E. ÜnalPenalty

85'

90'

90+5'

90+5'

90+3'

D. Suárez← Portu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoGetafe

Overview

63%Possession37%

12Total Shots9

0.74Expected Goals (xG)1.19

8Corners0

11Fouls18

Shots

12Total Shots9

4On Target1

4Off Target4

4Blocked4

8Inside Box3

4Outside Box6

Passing

63%Possession37%

630Total Passes391

522Accurate Passes261

83%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls18

3Yellow Cards5

3Offsides0