Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Getafe II vs Atlético Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 5 2020

Getafe II
Getafe II
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
2/21/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 5Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 15Ciudad Deportiva de Getafe - Campo 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Getafe II36%
×Draw29%
Atlético Madrid II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Getafe II
1.11
Atlético Madrid II
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Getafe II
0.77
Atlético Madrid II
1.00

allows per match

Getafe II
1.23
Atlético Madrid II
1.46

finishing

Getafe II+0.00on par
Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Getafe II ↓

Atlético Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Getafe II or draw
64%
Getafe II or Atlético Madrid II
71%
Draw or Atlético Madrid II
64%

Winning margin

Getafe II wins by 2+
14%
Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Getafe II 1+ goals
67%
Getafe II 2+ goals
30%
Getafe II 3+ goals
10%
Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
67%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
30%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Getafe II (draw refunded)
50%
Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Getafe II at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

Atlético Madrid II away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Getafe II attack 0.77 + Atlético Madrid II defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.11

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.00 + Getafe II defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Getafe II scores more
36%
level
29%
Atlético Madrid II scores more
36%

Getafe II at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Getafe II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Getafe II vs Atlético Madrid II

Atlético Madrid II beat Getafe II 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 5 on February 21, 2021.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Getafe - Campo 1 in Getafe.