Atlético Madrid II 0–0 Getafe II: Result & Stats

Atlético Madrid II

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Getafe II

12/23/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 6Miniestadio Cerro del Espino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Atlético Madrid II38%

×Draw34%

Getafe II27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético Madrid IIExpected goals in this matchGetafe II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

0.73

Atlético Madrid II

0.93

Getafe II

0.73

Atlético Madrid II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

0.77

creates per match

0.62

0.85

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Atlético Madrid II

0.77

Getafe II

0.62

allows per match

Atlético Madrid II

0.85

Getafe II

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Getafe II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under77
Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Madrid II ↓

Getafe II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–019%

0–114%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

81%19%1.5

49%51%2.5

23%77%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Atlético Madrid II or draw

73%

Atlético Madrid II or Getafe II

66%

Draw or Getafe II

62%

Winning margin

Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+

14%

Getafe II wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals

61%

Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals

24%

Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals

7%

Getafe II 1+ goals

52%

Getafe II 2+ goals

17%

Getafe II 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)

59%

Getafe II (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Madrid II at home — creates 0.77, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Getafe II away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Madrid II attack 0.77 + Getafe II defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.93

Getafe II attack 0.62 + Atlético Madrid II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Atlético Madrid II scores more

38%

level

34%

Getafe II scores more

27%

Atlético Madrid II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Atlético Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Madrid II vs Getafe II

Atlético Madrid II and Getafe II drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 5 on December 23, 2020.

The match was played at Miniestadio Cerro del Espino in Majadahonda.

Atlético Madrid II vs Getafe II — Primera División RFEF - Group 5 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Atlético Madrid II vs Getafe II