Atlético Madrid II 2–3 Getafe II: Result & Stats

Atlético Madrid II

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Getafe II

G. Simeone 77'

E. Sutherland 75'

Diego López 72'

Pablo Montero 60'

Álvaro López 58'

12/22/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 20Miniestadio Cerro del Espino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Atlético Madrid II55%

×Draw24%

Getafe II21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético Madrid IIExpected goals in this matchGetafe II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.99

Atlético Madrid II

1.75

Getafe II

0.99

Atlético Madrid II creates 77% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 35 away

2.50

creates per match

1.29

0.70

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Atlético Madrid II

2.50

Getafe II

1.29

allows per match

Atlético Madrid II

0.70

Getafe II

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Getafe II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Madrid II ↓

Getafe II →

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Atlético Madrid II or draw

79%

Atlético Madrid II or Getafe II

76%

Draw or Getafe II

45%

Winning margin

Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+

31%

Getafe II wins by 2+

Team goals

Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals

83%

Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals

52%

Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals

25%

Getafe II 1+ goals

63%

Getafe II 2+ goals

26%

Getafe II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)

72%

Getafe II (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético Madrid II at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.70 · 20 matches

Getafe II away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Madrid II attack 2.50 + Getafe II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Getafe II attack 1.29 + Atlético Madrid II defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Atlético Madrid II scores more

55%

level

24%

Getafe II scores more

21%

Atlético Madrid II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Atlético Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Totti← Mario Presa

55'

Manuel Lama← Adrián Corral

55'

E. Sutherland← Alberto Moreno

55'

Santi Miguélez← Jordi Ferrer

58'

Álvaro López

60'

Pablo Montero

61'

Mario Musy← David Fernández

72'

Diego López

73'

Adrián Rodríguez← Mini

73'

Iván Sánchez← Pablo Montero

75'

E. Sutherland

77'

G. Simeone

78'

Jorge Delgado← Camacho

80'

T. Rossi← Diego López

80'

Pablo Ramírez← Santi García

Atlético

Getafe

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

López

▼

Presa

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Tevenet

55'▲Manuel Lama←▼Adrián Corral

55'▲E. Sutherland←▼Alberto Moreno

55'▲Santi Miguélez←▼Jordi Ferrer

61'▲Mario Musy←▼David Fernández

73'▲Adrián Rodríguez←▼Mini

Atlético Madrid II substitutes

LamaSutherlandMiguélezMusyRodríguez

Manager: Iván Ruiz

46'▲Totti←▼Mario Presa

73'▲Iván Sánchez←▼Pablo Montero

78'▲Jorge Delgado←▼Camacho

80'▲T. Rossi←▼Diego López

80'▲Pablo Ramírez←▼Santi García

Getafe II substitutes

TottiSánchezDelgadoRossiRamírez