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Getafe II vs Atlético Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Getafe II
Getafe II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
12/8/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 16Ciudad Deportiva de Getafe - Campo 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Getafe II31%
×Draw28%
Atlético Madrid II41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Getafe II
1.08
Atlético Madrid II
1.27

Atlético Madrid II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

creates per match

Getafe II
0.93
Atlético Madrid II
1.46

allows per match

Getafe II
1.07
Atlético Madrid II
1.23

finishing

Getafe II+0.00on par
Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Getafe II ↓

Atlético Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Getafe II or draw
59%
Getafe II or Atlético Madrid II
72%
Draw or Atlético Madrid II
69%

Winning margin

Getafe II wins by 2+
12%
Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Getafe II 1+ goals
66%
Getafe II 2+ goals
29%
Getafe II 3+ goals
10%
Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
72%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
36%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Getafe II (draw refunded)
44%
Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Getafe II at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

Atlético Madrid II away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Getafe II attack 0.93 + Atlético Madrid II defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.08

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.46 + Getafe II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Getafe II scores more
31%
level
28%
Atlético Madrid II scores more
41%

Atlético Madrid II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Atlético Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Getafe II 0 – 2 Atlético Madrid II

Atlético Madrid II beat Getafe II 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 8, 2019.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Getafe - Campo 2 in Getafe.