Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Georgia vs Armenia — UEFA Nations League 2018

Georgia
Georgia
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Armenia
Armenia
Vako Qazaishvili 65' (pen)
Sargis Adamyan 86'
Gevorg Ghazaryan 33'
11/15/2020UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · League C - 5Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Georgia61%
×Draw21%
Armenia18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Georgia
2.08
Armenia
1.04

Georgia creates 100% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Georgia
1.92
Armenia
1.46

allows per match

Georgia
0.62
Armenia
2.23

finishing

Georgia+0.00on par
Armenia+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Georgia ↓

Armenia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Georgia or draw
82%
Georgia or Armenia
79%
Draw or Armenia
39%

Winning margin

Georgia wins by 2+
38%
Armenia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Georgia 1+ goals
87%
Georgia 2+ goals
61%
Georgia 3+ goals
34%
Armenia 1+ goals
65%
Armenia 2+ goals
28%
Armenia 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Georgia (draw refunded)
77%
Armenia (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Georgia at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Armenia away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Georgia attack 1.92 + Armenia defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.08

Armenia attack 1.46 + Georgia defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Georgia scores more
61%
level
21%
Armenia scores more
18%

Georgia at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Georgia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
Vako QazaishviliGeorgiaGeorgia · M
7.3

Match Events

33'
Gevorg Ghazaryan
35'
Artak Grigoryan
56'
Vako Qazaishvili← Zuriko Davitashvili
65'
Vako QazaishviliPenalty
67'
Nika Kacharava← Elguja Lobjanidze
69'
Serob Grigoryan← Arman Hovhannisyan
76'
Giorgi Aburjania
77'
Karen Muradyan← Solomon Udo
77'
Vahan Bichakhchyan← Gevorg Ghazaryan
77'
Arshak Koryan← Alexander Karapetian
80'
Giorgi Papunashvili← Saba Lobjanidze
80'
Beka Mikeltadze← Valeriane Gvilia
80'
Nika Kvekveskiri← Giorgi Aburjania
86'
Sargis Adamyan↳ Tigran Barseghyan
89'
Taron Voskanyan← Sargis Adamyan

Possession

71%Georgia

Shots

10Georgia

Pass accuracy

56%Georgia

Statistics

GeorgiaArmenia
Overview
71%Possession29%
10Total Shots10
8Corners4
14Fouls12
Shots
10Total Shots10
4On Target3
1Off Target3
5Blocked4
6Inside Box7
4Outside Box3
Passing
71%Possession29%
638Total Passes263
555Accurate Passes175
87%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls12
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Georgia vs Armenia

Armenia beat Georgia 2-1 in UEFA Nations League on November 15, 2020.

Goals: Gevorg Ghazaryan (33'), Vako Qazaishvili (65' pen), Sargis Adamyan (86').

Georgia controlled possession (71%) and registered 10 shots to 10.

The match was played at Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena in Tbilisi.