Armenia 2–2 Georgia: Result & Stats

Armenia

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Georgia

Henrikh Mkhitaryan 89' (pen)

Khoren Bayramyan 6'

Tornike Okriashvili 74'

Nika Kacharava 46'

10/11/2020

UEFA Nations League · League C - 3Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Armenia22%

×Draw23%

Georgia55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArmeniaExpected goals in this matchGeorgia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.79

Armenia

1.03

Georgia

1.79

Georgia creates 74% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

1.25

creates per match

1.91

1.67

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Armenia

1.25

Georgia

1.91

allows per match

Armenia

1.67

Georgia

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Armenia+0.00on par

Georgia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Armenia ↓

Georgia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Armenia or draw

45%

Armenia or Georgia

77%

Draw or Georgia

78%

Winning margin

Armenia wins by 2+

8%

Georgia wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Armenia 1+ goals

64%

Armenia 2+ goals

28%

Armenia 3+ goals

9%

Georgia 1+ goals

83%

Georgia 2+ goals

53%

Georgia 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Armenia (draw refunded)

28%

Georgia (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Armenia at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

Georgia away — creates 1.91, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Armenia attack 1.25 + Georgia defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.03

Georgia attack 1.91 + Armenia defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Armenia scores more

22%

level

23%

Georgia scores more

55%

Georgia at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Georgia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Vako Qazaishvili

Georgia · M

7.9

Match Events

6'

Khoren Bayramyan↳ Tigran Barseghyan

46'

Nika Kacharava↳ Levan Shengelia

47'

Varazdat Haroyan

53'

Giorgi Navalovski

61'

Tornike Okriashvili← Valeriane Gvilia

67'

Edgar Babayan← Alexander Karapetian

67'

Yuri Gareginyan← Wbeymar Angulo

68'

Khoren Bayramyan

71'

Jaba Kankava

74'

Tornike Okriashvili↳ Vako Qazaishvili

76'

Nika Kvekveskiri← Jaba Kankava

76'

Murtaz Daushvili← Giorgi Aburjania

80'

Saba Lobjanidze← Levan Shengelia

80'

Elguja Lobjanidze← Nika Kacharava

81'

Gegam Kadimyan← Kamo Hovhannisyan

88'

Murtaz Daushvili

89'

Henrikh MkhitaryanPenalty

90+1'

Edgar Babayan

90'

Vahan Bichakhchyan← Tigran Barseghyan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArmeniaGeorgia

Overview

40%Possession60%

11Total Shots14

1Corners4

16Fouls17

Shots

11Total Shots14

4On Target6

4Off Target7

3Blocked1

6Inside Box9

5Outside Box5

Passing

40%Possession60%

352Total Passes521

272Accurate Passes445

77%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls17

3Yellow Cards3

3Offsides2

UEFA Nations League: Armenia 2–2 Georgia

Armenia and Georgia drew 2-2 in UEFA Nations League on October 11, 2020.

Goals: Khoren Bayramyan (6'), Nika Kacharava (46'), Tornike Okriashvili (74'), Henrikh Mkhitaryan (89' pen).

Georgia controlled possession (60%) and registered 14 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Tychy.

Armenia vs Georgia — UEFA Nations League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UEFA Nations League: Armenia 2–2 Georgia