Armenia 0–3 Georgia: Result & Stats

Armenia

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Georgia

G. Mikautadze 59', 37'

G. Kochorashvili 32'

3/20/2025

UEFA Nations League · Play-offs B/CVazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Armenia22%

×Draw23%

Georgia55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArmeniaExpected goals in this matchGeorgia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.79

Armenia

1.03

Georgia

1.79

Georgia creates 74% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

1.25

creates per match

1.91

1.67

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Armenia

1.25

Georgia

1.91

allows per match

Armenia

1.67

Georgia

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Armenia+0.00on par

Georgia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Armenia ↓

Georgia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Armenia or draw

45%

Armenia or Georgia

77%

Draw or Georgia

78%

Winning margin

Armenia wins by 2+

8%

Georgia wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Armenia 1+ goals

64%

Armenia 2+ goals

28%

Armenia 3+ goals

9%

Georgia 1+ goals

83%

Georgia 2+ goals

53%

Georgia 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Armenia (draw refunded)

28%

Georgia (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Armenia at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

Georgia away — creates 1.91, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Armenia attack 1.25 + Georgia defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.03

Georgia attack 1.91 + Armenia defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Armenia scores more

22%

level

23%

Georgia scores more

55%

Georgia at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Georgia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

G. Mikautadze

Georgia · F

8.6

Match Events

18'

Nika Kvekveskiri

32'

G. Kochorashvili↳ O. Kiteishvili

37'

G. Mikautadze↳ G. Mamardashvili

46'

S. Udo← A. Dashyan

46'

V. Bichakhchyan← G. Manvelyan

51'

Otar Kakabadze

57'

N. Kaloukian← A. Miranyan

59'

G. Mikautadze↳ G. Chakvetadze

65'

N. Grigoryan← U. Iwu

66'

A. Mekvabishvili← O. Kiteishvili

66'

B. Zivzivadze← G. Mikautadze

66'

G. Tsitaishvili← G. Chakvetadze

70'

L. Dvali← L. Lochoshvili

75'

G. Gocholeishvili← I. Azarovi

80'

H. Hambardzumyan← S. Muradyan

90+3'

Hovhannes Hambardzumyan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArmeniaGeorgia

Overview

41%Possession59%

8Total Shots10

7Corners3

10Fouls11

Shots

8Total Shots10

2On Target5

3Off Target4

3Blocked1

3Inside Box10

5Outside Box0

Passing

41%Possession59%

405Total Passes590

342Accurate Passes527

84%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0