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Genoa vs Empoli — Serie A 2026

Genoa
Genoa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Empoli
Empoli
R. Malinovskyi 37'
M. Cancellieri 67'
12/2/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 14Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Genoa47%
×Draw27%
Empoli26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genoa
1.39
Empoli
0.96

Genoa creates 45% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 6 away

creates per match

Genoa
1.14
Empoli
0.75

allows per match

Genoa
1.18
Empoli
1.64

finishing

Genoa+0.00on par
Empoli+0.25scores more

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genoa ↓

Empoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Genoa or draw
74%
Genoa or Empoli
73%
Draw or Empoli
53%

Winning margin

Genoa wins by 2+
22%
Empoli wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Genoa 1+ goals
75%
Genoa 2+ goals
40%
Genoa 3+ goals
16%
Empoli 1+ goals
62%
Empoli 2+ goals
25%
Empoli 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Genoa (draw refunded)
64%
Empoli (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genoa at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.18 · 29 matches

Empoli away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.64 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genoa attack 1.14 + Empoli defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.39

Empoli attack 0.75 + Genoa defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Genoa scores more
47%
level
27%
Empoli scores more
26%

Genoa at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Genoa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
A. VogliaccoGenoaGenoa · D
7.7

Match Events

13'
Filippo Ranocchia
37'
R. Malinovskyi↳ M. Badelj
46'
V. Kovalenko← J. Fazzini
56'
Ruslan Malinovskyi
65'
A. Grassi← F. Ranocchia
66'
B. Kutlu← Junior Messias
66'
M. Cancellieri← D. Maldini
67'
M. Cancellieri↳ V. Kovalenko
72'
S. Fini← R. Malinovskyi
72'
R. Haps← J. Vásquez
76'
R. Marin← Y. Maleh
83'
G. Puşcaş← S. Sabelli
86'
Alessandro Vogliacco
90+2'
Milan Badelj
90+3'
S. Shpendi← F. Caputo

Possession

50%Genoa

Shots

21Genoa

Pass accuracy

50%Genoa

Statistics

GenoaEmpoli
Overview
50%Possession50%
21Total Shots9
1.03Expected Goals (xG)0.81
5Corners3
15Fouls19
Shots
21Total Shots9
1On Target1
14Off Target5
6Blocked3
13Inside Box3
8Outside Box6
Passing
50%Possession50%
372Total Passes384
267Accurate Passes280
72%Pass Accuracy73%
Discipline
15Fouls19
3Yellow Cards1
3Offsides0

Serie A: Genoa 1–1 Empoli

Genoa and Empoli drew 1-1 in Serie A on December 2, 2023.

Goals: R. Malinovskyi (37'), M. Cancellieri (67').

Genoa controlled possession (50%) and registered 21 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Genova.