Empoli 1–2 Genoa: Result & Stats | Serie A

Empoli

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Genoa

S. Esposito 74'

C. Ekuban 68'

M. Badelj 46'

12/28/2024

Serie A · Round 18Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Empoli35%

×Draw27%

Genoa38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmpoliExpected goals in this matchGenoa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.30

Empoli

1.22

Genoa

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 29 away

1.01

creates per match

1.05

1.55

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Empoli

1.01

Genoa

1.05

allows per match

Empoli

1.55

Genoa

1.43

-0.41scores less than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Empoli-0.41scores less

Genoa-0.12scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli ↓

Genoa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Empoli or draw

62%

Empoli or Genoa

73%

Draw or Genoa

65%

Winning margin

Empoli wins by 2+

15%

Genoa wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Empoli 1+ goals

70%

Empoli 2+ goals

34%

Empoli 3+ goals

12%

Genoa 1+ goals

73%

Genoa 2+ goals

37%

Genoa 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Empoli (draw refunded)

47%

Genoa (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.55 · 5 matches

Genoa away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.43 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli attack 1.01 + Genoa defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.22

Genoa attack 1.05 + Empoli defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Empoli scores more

35%

level

27%

Genoa scores more

38%

Genoa at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Genoa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

N. Leali

Genoa · G

9.2

Match Events

39'

S. Sabelli← B. Norton-Cuffy

46'

M. Badelj

52'

Sebastiano EspositoPenalty confirmed

54'

Sebastiano EspositoMissed penalty

59'

J. Fazzini← L. Henderson

63'

C. Ekuban← A. Pinamonti

63'

F. Miretti← M. Badelj

63'

P. Masini← A. Zanoli

66'

Morten Thorsby

68'

C. Ekuban↳ F. Miretti

71'

Y. Maleh← A. Grassi

71'

M. De Sciglio← S. Goglichidze

74'

S. Esposito↳ T. Anjorin

79'

Vitinha

80'

E. Ekong← L. Cacace

80'

L. Marianucci← T. Anjorin

81'

Emmanuel Gyasi

82'

K. De Winter← M. Thorsby

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EmpoliGenoa

Overview

59%Possession41%

12Total Shots14

1.34Expected Goals (xG)1.77

7Corners4

16Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots14

8On Target5

3Off Target5

1Blocked4

5Inside Box9

7Outside Box5

Passing

59%Possession41%

451Total Passes316

362Accurate Passes228

80%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

3Saves7

1.25Goals Prevented1.25

Discipline

16Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1

Serie A: Empoli 1–2 Genoa

Genoa beat Empoli 2-1 in Serie A on December 28, 2024.

Goals: M. Badelj (46'), C. Ekuban (68'), S. Esposito (74').

Empoli controlled possession (59%) and registered 12 shots to 14.

The match was played at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena in Empoli.

Empoli vs Genoa — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Empoli 1–2 Genoa