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Empoli vs Genoa — Serie A 2026

Empoli
Empoli
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Genoa
Genoa
2/3/2024Serie ASerie A · Round 23Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Empoli41%
×Draw25%
Genoa33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Empoli
1.48
Genoa
1.30

Empoli creates 14% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 122 away

creates per match

Empoli
1.34
Genoa
0.96

allows per match

Empoli
1.65
Genoa
1.61

finishing

Empoli+0.00on par
Genoa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli ↓

Genoa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Empoli or draw
67%
Empoli or Genoa
75%
Draw or Genoa
59%

Winning margin

Empoli wins by 2+
20%
Genoa wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Empoli 1+ goals
77%
Empoli 2+ goals
43%
Empoli 3+ goals
19%
Genoa 1+ goals
73%
Genoa 2+ goals
37%
Genoa 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Empoli (draw refunded)
55%
Genoa (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.65 · 65 matches

Genoa away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.61 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli attack 1.34 + Genoa defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.48

Genoa attack 0.96 + Empoli defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Empoli scores more
41%
level
25%
Genoa scores more
33%

Empoli at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Empoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33
S. LupertoEmpoliEmpoli · D
8.3

Match Events

46'
C. Ekuban← R. Malinovskyi
53'
Sebastian Walukiewicz
54'
M. Cancellieri← A. Cerri
54'
L. Cacace← B. Bereszyński
66'
Koni De Winter
71'
V. Kovalenko← A. Grassi
71'
M. Destro← S. Żurkowski
73'
Stefano Sabelli
75'
Nicolò Cambiaghi
77'
Vítinha← M. Retegui
77'
Aarón Martín← S. Sabelli
85'
J. Fazzini← N. Cambiaghi
90+2'
Koni De Winter
90+2'
Koni De Winter

Possession

48%Empoli

Shots

15Empoli

Pass accuracy

50%Empoli

Statistics

EmpoliGenoa
Overview
48%Possession52%
15Total Shots10
0.56Expected Goals (xG)0.65
6Corners6
11Fouls12
Shots
15Total Shots10
4On Target2
4Off Target4
7Blocked4
8Inside Box8
7Outside Box2
Passing
48%Possession52%
394Total Passes437
310Accurate Passes342
79%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls12
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
2Offsides2

Empoli 0 – 0 Genoa

Empoli and Genoa drew 0-0 in Serie A on February 3, 2024.

Genoa controlled possession (52%) and registered 10 shots to 15.

The match was played at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena in Empoli.