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Genoa vs Empoli — Serie A 2026

Genoa
Genoa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Empoli
Empoli
C. Kouamé 18'
K. Piątek 6'
S. Mráz 90+4'
8/26/2018Serie ASerie A · Round 2Luigi Ferraris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Genoa42%
×Draw27%
Empoli31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genoa
1.36
Empoli
1.13

Genoa creates 20% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 62 away

creates per match

Genoa
1.18
Empoli
0.94

allows per match

Genoa
1.32
Empoli
1.55

finishing

Genoa+0.00on par
Empoli+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genoa ↓

Empoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Genoa or draw
69%
Genoa or Empoli
73%
Draw or Empoli
58%

Winning margin

Genoa wins by 2+
20%
Empoli wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Genoa 1+ goals
74%
Genoa 2+ goals
39%
Genoa 3+ goals
16%
Empoli 1+ goals
68%
Empoli 2+ goals
31%
Empoli 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Genoa (draw refunded)
57%
Empoli (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genoa at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.32 · 124 matches

Empoli away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.55 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genoa attack 1.18 + Empoli defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.36

Empoli attack 0.94 + Genoa defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Genoa scores more
42%
level
27%
Empoli scores more
31%

Genoa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Genoa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
M. ZajcEmpoliEmpoli · M
7.9

Match Events

6'
K. Piątek↳ D. Criscito
18'
C. Kouamé↳ D. Criscito
45'
Nicolás Spolli
52'
Domenico Criscito
54'
L. Mazzitelli← G. Pandev
59'
Ervin Zukanović
72'
K. Günter← D. Lazović
73'
I. Bennacer← A. Acquah
77'
S. Mráz← A. La Gumina
81'
Daniel Bessa← O. Hiljemark
85'
Matías Silvestre
85'
H. Traorè← M. Zajc
90'
Rade Krunić
90+4'
S. Mráz↳ G. Di Lorenzo

Possession

30%Genoa

Shots

13Genoa

Pass accuracy

47%Genoa

Statistics

GenoaEmpoli
Overview
30%Possession70%
13Total Shots18
3Corners6
13Fouls16
Shots
13Total Shots18
3On Target4
5Off Target7
5Blocked7
7Inside Box9
6Outside Box9
Passing
30%Possession70%
263Total Passes619
197Accurate Passes531
75%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
13Fouls16
3Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
0Offsides3

Serie A: Genoa 2–1 Empoli

Genoa beat Empoli 2-1 in Serie A on August 26, 2018.

Goals: K. Piątek (6'), C. Kouamé (18'), S. Mráz (90+4').

Empoli controlled possession (70%) and registered 18 shots to 13.

The match was played at Luigi Ferraris in Genova.