Gaziantep FK 0–3 Galatasaray: Result & Stats

Gaziantep FK

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Galatasaray

B. A. Yilmaz 45' (pen), 12' (pen)

E. Elmali 16'

8/8/2025

League #203 · Round 1Kalyon Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Gaziantep FK25%

×Draw25%

Galatasaray50%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gaziantep FKExpected goals in this matchGalatasaray

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.60

Gaziantep FK

1.04

Galatasaray

1.60

Galatasaray creates 54% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 24 away

0.90

creates per match

1.63

1.58

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Gaziantep FK

0.90

Galatasaray

1.63

allows per match

Gaziantep FK

1.58

Galatasaray

1.18

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

Gaziantep FK-0.10scores less

Galatasaray+0.29scores more

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gaziantep FK ↓

Galatasaray →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Gaziantep FK or draw

50%

Gaziantep FK or Galatasaray

75%

Draw or Galatasaray

75%

Winning margin

Gaziantep FK wins by 2+

9%

Galatasaray wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Gaziantep FK 1+ goals

65%

Gaziantep FK 2+ goals

28%

Gaziantep FK 3+ goals

9%

Galatasaray 1+ goals

80%

Galatasaray 2+ goals

47%

Galatasaray 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Gaziantep FK (draw refunded)

33%

Galatasaray (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gaziantep FK at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.58 · 5 matches

Galatasaray away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.18 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gaziantep FK attack 0.90 + Galatasaray defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.04

Galatasaray attack 1.63 + Gaziantep FK defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Gaziantep FK scores more

25%

level

25%

Galatasaray scores more

50%

Galatasaray at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Galatasaray will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

53

B. A. Yilmaz

Galatasaray · F

9.7

Match Events

9'

Roland SallaiPenalty confirmed

12'

Kévin Rodrigues

12'

B. A. YilmazPenalty

16'

E. Elmali↳ B. A. Yilmaz

35'

E. Kulasin← S. M'Bakata

41'

41'

41'

42'

45'

B. A. YilmazPenalty

46'

B. Ndiaye← C. Lungoyi

64'

Mustafa Burak Bozan

64'

Mustafa Burak BozanCard upgrade

65'

K. Ayhan← M. Lemina

66'

I. Jakobs← Y. Akgun

66'

B. Kutlu← L. Torreira

66'

A. Unyay← D. Sanchez

67'

S. Dioudis← A. Maxim

73'

N. Zaniolo← E. Elmali

79'

M. Cihan← D. Sorescu

79'

O. Ozcicek← E. Boateng

90+3'

Abdülkerim Bardakcı

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GaziantepGalatasaray

Overview

40%Possession60%

5Total Shots15

0.14Expected Goals (xG)2.55

1Corners4

14Fouls15

Shots

5Total Shots15

2On Target5

1Off Target9

2Blocked1

2Inside Box10

3Outside Box5

Passing

40%Possession60%

322Total Passes470

265Accurate Passes419

82%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

0.06Goals Prevented0.06

Discipline

14Fouls15

2Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

0Offsides2