Galatasaray 1–1 Gaziantep FK: Result & Stats

Galatasaray

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Gaziantep FK

B. A. Yilmaz 84'

M. Bayo 73'

1/17/2026

League #203 · Round 18Rams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Galatasaray64%

×Draw20%

Gaziantep FK17%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GalatasarayExpected goals in this matchGaziantep FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.02

Galatasaray

2.20

Gaziantep FK

1.02

Galatasaray creates 116% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 5 away

2.12

creates per match

1.13

0.91

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Galatasaray

2.12

Gaziantep FK

1.13

allows per match

Galatasaray

0.91

Gaziantep FK

2.27

+0.38scores more than expected

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Galatasaray+0.38scores more

Gaziantep FK-0.13scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galatasaray ↓

Gaziantep FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Galatasaray or draw

83%

Galatasaray or Gaziantep FK

80%

Draw or Gaziantep FK

36%

Winning margin

Galatasaray wins by 2+

41%

Gaziantep FK wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Galatasaray 1+ goals

89%

Galatasaray 2+ goals

64%

Galatasaray 3+ goals

37%

Gaziantep FK 1+ goals

64%

Gaziantep FK 2+ goals

27%

Gaziantep FK 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Galatasaray (draw refunded)

79%

Gaziantep FK (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galatasaray at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.91 · 24 matches

Gaziantep FK away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.27 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galatasaray attack 2.12 + Gaziantep FK defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.20

Gaziantep FK attack 1.13 + Galatasaray defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Galatasaray scores more

64%

level

20%

Gaziantep FK scores more

17%

Galatasaray at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Galatasaray will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

42

A. Bardakci

Galatasaray · D

7.7

Match Events

53'

Barış Alper Yılmaz

53'

Nazım Sangaré

63'

K. Gassama← D. Dragus

70'

Luis Pérez

73'

M. Bayo

74'

K. Karatas← E. Elmali

78'

Mauro Icardi

79'

A. Kutucu← I. Gundogan

84'

B. A. Yilmaz

90+4'

Mario Lemina

90+1'

V. Gidado← A. Maxim

90+1'

C. Lungoyi← Y. Kabadayi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GalatasarayGaziantep

Overview

68%Possession32%

17Total Shots10

1.58Expected Goals (xG)1.05

10Corners2

17Fouls12

Shots

17Total Shots10

3On Target4

9Off Target5

5Blocked1

14Inside Box8

3Outside Box2

Passing

68%Possession32%

561Total Passes271

482Accurate Passes195

86%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

-0.35Goals Prevented-0.35

Discipline

17Fouls12

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2