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Galatasaray vs Gaziantep FK — League #203 2026

Galatasaray
Galatasaray
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Gaziantep FK
Gaziantep FK
M. Batshuayi 76'
Y. Akgün 26'
B. Yılmaz 11'
F. Soyalp 81'
9/17/2024League #203League #203 · Round 3RAMS Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Galatasaray64%
×Draw20%
Gaziantep FK17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Galatasaray
2.20
Gaziantep FK
1.02

Galatasaray creates 116% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 5 away

creates per match

Galatasaray
2.12
Gaziantep FK
1.13

allows per match

Galatasaray
0.91
Gaziantep FK
2.27

finishing

Galatasaray+0.38scores more
Gaziantep FK-0.13scores less

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galatasaray ↓

Gaziantep FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Galatasaray or draw
83%
Galatasaray or Gaziantep FK
80%
Draw or Gaziantep FK
36%

Winning margin

Galatasaray wins by 2+
41%
Gaziantep FK wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Galatasaray 1+ goals
89%
Galatasaray 2+ goals
64%
Galatasaray 3+ goals
37%
Gaziantep FK 1+ goals
64%
Gaziantep FK 2+ goals
27%
Gaziantep FK 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Galatasaray (draw refunded)
79%
Gaziantep FK (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galatasaray at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.91 · 24 matches

Gaziantep FK away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.27 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galatasaray attack 2.12 + Gaziantep FK defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.20

Gaziantep FK attack 1.13 + Galatasaray defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Galatasaray scores more
64%
level
20%
Gaziantep FK scores more
17%

Galatasaray at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Galatasaray will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

53
B. YılmazGalatasarayGalatasaray · M
8.7

Match Events

11'
B. Yılmaz↳ D. Mertens
26'
Y. Akgün↳ M. Batshuayi
36'
Kaan Ayhan
46'
C. Mandouki← M. Cihan
46'
S. M'Bakata← E. Taşdemir
70'
İ. Karakaş← K. Kodro
72'
K. Demirbay← D. Mertens
72'
Y. Demir← Y. Akgün
74'
Kacper Kozłowski
76'
M. Batshuayi↳ B. Yılmaz
77'
E. Jelert← K. Ayhan
77'
V. Nelsson← D. Sánchez
79'
F. Soyalp← A. Maxim
81'
F. Soyalp↳ İ. Karakaş
82'
E. Akman← B. Yılmaz
86'
O. Özçiçek← D. Sorescu

Possession

63%Galatasaray

Shots

23Galatasaray

Pass accuracy

53%Galatasaray

Statistics

GalatasarayGaziantep
Overview
63%Possession37%
23Total Shots6
2.16Expected Goals (xG)0.62
11Corners4
11Fouls6
Shots
23Total Shots6
8On Target3
11Off Target3
4Blocked0
15Inside Box4
8Outside Box2
Passing
63%Possession37%
569Total Passes336
485Accurate Passes250
85%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
-0.26Goals Prevented-0.26
Discipline
11Fouls6
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides4

Match Recap: Galatasaray vs Gaziantep FK

Galatasaray beat Gaziantep FK 3-1 in League #203 on September 17, 2024.

Goals: B. Yılmaz (11'), Y. Akgün (26'), M. Batshuayi (76'), F. Soyalp (81').

Galatasaray controlled possession (63%) and registered 23 shots to 6.

The match was played at RAMS Park in İstanbul.