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Garbarnia Kraków vs Chojniczanka Chojnice — II Liga - East 2019

Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Chojniczanka Chojnice
Chojniczanka Chojnice
4/30/2022II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 31Stadion Garbarni przy ul. Barskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Garbarnia Kraków37%
×Draw25%
Chojniczanka Chojnice38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Garbarnia Kraków
1.40
Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 87 away

creates per match

Garbarnia Kraków
1.57
Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.45

allows per match

Garbarnia Kraków
1.42
Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.23

finishing

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par
Chojniczanka Chojnice+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garbarnia Kraków ↓

Chojniczanka Chojnice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Garbarnia Kraków or draw
62%
Garbarnia Kraków or Chojniczanka Chojnice
75%
Draw or Chojniczanka Chojnice
63%

Winning margin

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
17%
Chojniczanka Chojnice wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
75%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
41%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
17%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 1+ goals
76%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 2+ goals
42%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
49%
Chojniczanka Chojnice (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garbarnia Kraków at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.42 · 69 matches

Chojniczanka Chojnice away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.23 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.57 + Chojniczanka Chojnice defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.40

Chojniczanka Chojnice attack 1.45 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Garbarnia Kraków scores more
37%
level
25%
Chojniczanka Chojnice scores more
38%

Chojniczanka Chojnice at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chojniczanka Chojnice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Garbarnia Kraków 3–1 Chojniczanka Chojnice

Garbarnia Kraków beat Chojniczanka Chojnice 3-1 in II Liga - East on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Garbarni przy ul. Barskiej in Kraków.