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Chojniczanka Chojnice vs Garbarnia Kraków — I Liga 2018

Chojniczanka Chojnice
Chojniczanka Chojnice
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
4/13/2019I LigaI Liga · Round 28Stadion Miejski Chojnice (Chojnice)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chojniczanka Chojnice54%
×Draw23%
Garbarnia Kraków23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.83
Garbarnia Kraków
1.12

Chojniczanka Chojnice creates 63% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.47
Garbarnia Kraków
0.71

allows per match

Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.53
Garbarnia Kraków
2.18

finishing

Chojniczanka Chojnice+0.00on par
Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chojniczanka Chojnice ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Chojniczanka Chojnice or draw
77%
Chojniczanka Chojnice or Garbarnia Kraków
77%
Draw or Garbarnia Kraków
46%

Winning margin

Chojniczanka Chojnice wins by 2+
30%
Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Chojniczanka Chojnice 1+ goals
84%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 2+ goals
54%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 3+ goals
28%
Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
67%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
31%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Chojniczanka Chojnice (draw refunded)
70%
Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chojniczanka Chojnice at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.53 · 51 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chojniczanka Chojnice attack 1.47 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.83

Garbarnia Kraków attack 0.71 + Chojniczanka Chojnice defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Chojniczanka Chojnice scores more
54%
level
23%
Garbarnia Kraków scores more
23%

Chojniczanka Chojnice at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Chojniczanka Chojnice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chojniczanka Chojnice vs Garbarnia Kraków

Chojniczanka Chojnice beat Garbarnia Kraków 5-1 in I Liga on April 13, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Chojnice (Chojnice).