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Chojniczanka Chojnice vs Garbarnia Kraków — II Liga - East 2019

Chojniczanka Chojnice
Chojniczanka Chojnice
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
10/23/2021II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 14Stadion Miejski Chojnice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Chojniczanka Chojnice50%
×Draw24%
Garbarnia Kraków26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.69
Garbarnia Kraków
1.14

Chojniczanka Chojnice creates 48% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 68 away

creates per match

Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.91
Garbarnia Kraków
1.28

allows per match

Chojniczanka Chojnice
0.99
Garbarnia Kraków
1.47

finishing

Chojniczanka Chojnice+0.00on par
Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chojniczanka Chojnice ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Chojniczanka Chojnice or draw
74%
Chojniczanka Chojnice or Garbarnia Kraków
76%
Draw or Garbarnia Kraków
50%

Winning margin

Chojniczanka Chojnice wins by 2+
27%
Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Chojniczanka Chojnice 1+ goals
82%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 2+ goals
50%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 3+ goals
24%
Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
68%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
32%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Chojniczanka Chojnice (draw refunded)
66%
Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chojniczanka Chojnice at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.99 · 87 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chojniczanka Chojnice attack 1.91 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.69

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.28 + Chojniczanka Chojnice defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chojniczanka Chojnice scores more
50%
level
24%
Garbarnia Kraków scores more
26%

Chojniczanka Chojnice at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chojniczanka Chojnice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Chojniczanka Chojnice 1–3 Garbarnia Kraków

Garbarnia Kraków beat Chojniczanka Chojnice 3-1 in II Liga - East on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Chojnice in Chojnice.