Galatasaray 5–1 Eyüpspor: Result & Stats

Galatasaray

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Eyüpspor

J. Onguene 87' (OG)

M. Icardi 70', 48', 33'

Y. Akgun 2'

M. Altunbas 71'

2/13/2026

League #203 · Round 22Rams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Galatasaray70%

×Draw17%

Eyüpspor13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GalatasarayExpected goals in this matchEyüpspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

1.03

Galatasaray

2.54

Eyüpspor

1.03

Galatasaray creates 147% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 5 away

2.21

creates per match

1.13

0.94

allows per match

2.88

creates per match

Galatasaray

2.21

Eyüpspor

1.13

allows per match

Galatasaray

0.94

Eyüpspor

2.88

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

+0.47scores more than expected

finishing

Galatasaray+0.31scores more

Eyüpspor+0.47scores more

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galatasaray ↓

Eyüpspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Galatasaray or draw

87%

Galatasaray or Eyüpspor

83%

Draw or Eyüpspor

30%

Winning margin

Galatasaray wins by 2+

48%

Eyüpspor wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Galatasaray 1+ goals

92%

Galatasaray 2+ goals

72%

Galatasaray 3+ goals

46%

Eyüpspor 1+ goals

64%

Eyüpspor 2+ goals

28%

Eyüpspor 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Galatasaray (draw refunded)

84%

Eyüpspor (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galatasaray at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.94 · 25 matches

Eyüpspor away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.88 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galatasaray attack 2.21 + Eyüpspor defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.54

Eyüpspor attack 1.13 + Galatasaray defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Galatasaray scores more

70%

level

17%

Eyüpspor scores more

13%

Galatasaray at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Galatasaray will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

M. Icardi

Galatasaray · F

10.0

Match Events

2'

Y. Akgun↳ V. Osimhen

33'

M. Icardi

38'

Bedirhan Özyurt

46'

Y. Asprilla← Y. Akgun

46'

W. Singo← D. Sanchez

46'

D. Radu← A. Torres

46'

M. Altunbas← L. Pintor

48'

M. Icardi↳ V. Osimhen

58'

R. Nhaga← A. Bardakci

60'

I. Taskin← E. Akbaba

60'

D. Rotariu← U. Bozok

63'

Taşkın Ilter

66'

B. A. Yilmaz← N. Lang

68'

Mateusz Łęgowski

70'

M. Icardi↳ B. A. Yilmaz

71'

M. Altunbas

74'

K. Ayhan← S. Boey

81'

C. Raux Yao← M. Legowski

87'

J. OngueneOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GalatasarayEyüpspor

Overview

62%Possession38%

21Total Shots6

2.47Expected Goals (xG)0.93

12Corners4

13Fouls13

Shots

21Total Shots6

9On Target3

9Off Target1

3Blocked2

15Inside Box3

6Outside Box3

Passing

62%Possession38%

517Total Passes318

470Accurate Passes261

91%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

-2.56Goals Prevented-2.56

Discipline

13Fouls13

0Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

3Offsides1