Eyüpspor 1–5 Galatasaray: Result & Stats

Eyüpspor

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Galatasaray

Luccas Claro 79'

Álvaro Morata 89', 87'

V. Osimhen 71'

L. Torreira 56'

R. Sallai 29'

4/27/2025

League #203 · Round 33Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Eyüpspor25%

×Draw23%

Galatasaray52%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EyüpsporExpected goals in this matchGalatasaray

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.77

Eyüpspor

1.16

Galatasaray

1.77

Galatasaray creates 53% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 25 away

1.17

creates per match

1.66

1.88

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Eyüpspor

1.17

Galatasaray

1.66

allows per match

Eyüpspor

1.88

Galatasaray

1.15

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

Eyüpspor-0.34scores less

Galatasaray+0.26scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eyüpspor ↓

Galatasaray →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Eyüpspor or draw

48%

Eyüpspor or Galatasaray

77%

Draw or Galatasaray

75%

Winning margin

Eyüpspor wins by 2+

10%

Galatasaray wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Eyüpspor 1+ goals

69%

Eyüpspor 2+ goals

32%

Eyüpspor 3+ goals

11%

Galatasaray 1+ goals

83%

Galatasaray 2+ goals

53%

Galatasaray 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Eyüpspor (draw refunded)

33%

Galatasaray (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eyüpspor at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.88 · 6 matches

Galatasaray away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.15 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eyüpspor attack 1.17 + Galatasaray defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.16

Galatasaray attack 1.66 + Eyüpspor defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Eyüpspor scores more

25%

level

23%

Galatasaray scores more

52%

Galatasaray at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Galatasaray will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

45

V. Osimhen

Galatasaray · F

8.9

Match Events

29'

C. Erkin← U. Meraş

29'

R. Sallai↳ V. Osimhen

36'

Przemysław Frankowski

46'

K. Ayhan← P. Frankowski

51'

Emre Mor

56'

L. Torreira

59'

Roland Sallai

62'

H. Akbunar← E. Akbaba

62'

U. Bozok← E. Mor

62'

T. Bingöl← M. Kabasakal

67'

Álvaro Morata← Gabriel Sara

69'

Prince Ampem

71'

V. Osimhen

76'

A. Kutucu← V. Osimhen

76'

D. Mertens← Y. Akgün

79'

Luccas Claro↳ C. Erkin

81'

H. Maldar← Rúben Vezo

83'

K. Demirbay← L. Torreira

87'

Álvaro Morata↳ M. Lemina

89'

Álvaro Morata↳ K. Ayhan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EyüpsporGalatasaray

Overview

50%Possession50%

8Total Shots17

0.42Expected Goals (xG)3.39

3Corners5

12Fouls14

Shots

8Total Shots17

3On Target8

2Off Target3

3Blocked6

3Inside Box14

5Outside Box3

Passing

50%Possession50%

374Total Passes381

310Accurate Passes314

83%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

-0.42Goals Prevented-0.42

Discipline

12Fouls14

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides3