Galatasaray 2–2 Eyüpspor: Result & Stats

Galatasaray

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Eyüpspor

R. Sallai 47'

B. Yılmaz 45+5'

P. Ampem 71'

E. Akbaba 13'

12/1/2024

League #203 · Round 14RAMS Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Galatasaray70%

×Draw17%

Eyüpspor13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GalatasarayExpected goals in this matchEyüpspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

1.03

Galatasaray

2.54

Eyüpspor

1.03

Galatasaray creates 147% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 5 away

2.21

creates per match

1.13

0.94

allows per match

2.88

creates per match

Galatasaray

2.21

Eyüpspor

1.13

allows per match

Galatasaray

0.94

Eyüpspor

2.88

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

+0.47scores more than expected

finishing

Galatasaray+0.31scores more

Eyüpspor+0.47scores more

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galatasaray ↓

Eyüpspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Galatasaray or draw

87%

Galatasaray or Eyüpspor

83%

Draw or Eyüpspor

30%

Winning margin

Galatasaray wins by 2+

48%

Eyüpspor wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Galatasaray 1+ goals

92%

Galatasaray 2+ goals

72%

Galatasaray 3+ goals

46%

Eyüpspor 1+ goals

64%

Eyüpspor 2+ goals

28%

Eyüpspor 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Galatasaray (draw refunded)

84%

Eyüpspor (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galatasaray at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.94 · 25 matches

Eyüpspor away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.88 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galatasaray attack 2.21 + Eyüpspor defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.54

Eyüpspor attack 1.13 + Galatasaray defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Galatasaray scores more

70%

level

17%

Eyüpspor scores more

13%

Galatasaray at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Galatasaray will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

B. Özer

Eyüpspor · G

9.7

Match Events

13'

E. Akbaba↳ H. Akbunar

22'

Davinson Sánchez

35'

Luccas Claro

39'

B. Kutlu← A. Bardakcı

45+2'

Victor Osimhen

45+4'

Mame Thiam

45+5'

B. Yılmaz

47'

R. Sallai↳ V. Osimhen

50'

55'

64'

71'

73'

M. Batshuayi← Y. Akgün

84'

Prince Ampem

85'

E. Jelert← B. Yılmaz

85'

K. Demirbay← Gabriel Sara

85'

H. Ziyech← D. Mertens

90+2'

Berke Özer

90+4'

S. Gümüş← T. İlter

90+5'

H. Maldar← H. Akbunar

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GalatasarayEyüpspor

Overview

66%Possession34%

28Total Shots5

4.35Expected Goals (xG)1.38

11Corners1

10Fouls22

Shots

28Total Shots5

14On Target4

12Off Target1

2Blocked0

23Inside Box5

5Outside Box0

Passing

66%Possession34%

435Total Passes240

367Accurate Passes158

84%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

2Saves12

2.96Goals Prevented2.96

Discipline

10Fouls22

3Yellow Cards4

2Offsides2

Match Recap: Galatasaray vs Eyüpspor

Galatasaray and Eyüpspor drew 2-2 in League #203 on December 1, 2024.

Goals: E. Akbaba (13'), B. Yılmaz (45+5'), R. Sallai (47'), P. Ampem (71').

Galatasaray controlled possession (66%) and registered 28 shots to 5.

The match was played at RAMS Park in İstanbul.

Galatasaray vs Eyüpspor — League #203 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Galatasaray vs Eyüpspor