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Galatasaray vs Erzurumspor FK — League #203 2026

Galatasaray
Galatasaray
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Erzurumspor FK
Erzurumspor FK
Mostafa Mohamed 45', 38'
2/27/2021League #203League #203 · Round 27Türk Telekom Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Galatasaray75%
×Draw16%
Erzurumspor FK9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Galatasaray
2.34
Erzurumspor FK
0.67

Galatasaray creates 249% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 5 away

creates per match

Galatasaray
2.48
Erzurumspor FK
0.40

allows per match

Galatasaray
0.93
Erzurumspor FK
2.20

finishing

Galatasaray+0.00on par
Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galatasaray ↓

Erzurumspor FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Galatasaray or draw
91%
Galatasaray or Erzurumspor FK
84%
Draw or Erzurumspor FK
25%

Winning margin

Galatasaray wins by 2+
51%
Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Galatasaray 1+ goals
90%
Galatasaray 2+ goals
67%
Galatasaray 3+ goals
41%
Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals
49%
Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals
15%
Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Galatasaray (draw refunded)
89%
Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galatasaray at home — creates 2.48, concedes 0.93 · 29 matches

Erzurumspor FK away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galatasaray attack 2.48 + Erzurumspor FK defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.34

Erzurumspor FK attack 0.40 + Galatasaray defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Galatasaray scores more
75%
level
16%
Erzurumspor FK scores more
9%

Galatasaray at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Galatasaray will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27
C. LuyindamaGalatasarayGalatasaray · D
8.2

Match Events

23'
Oghenekaro Etebo
38'
Mostafa Mohamed
45'
Mostafa Mohamed↳ C. Luyindama
46'
E. Rashani← R. Çağıran
47'
Adolphe Teikeu
63'
Aatif Chahechouhe
66'
Emre KılınçGoal cancelled
67'
M. El Kabir← Ricardo Gomes
72'
Y. Belhanda← E. Kılınç
73'
T. Antalyalı← O. Etebo
76'
E. Başsan← C. Alkılıç
76'
M. Uçar← O. Çelik
79'
Mostafa Mohamed
81'
Taylan Antalyalı
83'
K. Aktürkoğlu← H. Onyekuru
83'
R. Babel← A. Turan
86'
R. Falcao← Mostafa Mohamed
90'
Mostapha El Kabir

Possession

66%Galatasaray

Shots

10Galatasaray

Pass accuracy

54%Galatasaray

Statistics

GalatasarayErzurumspor
Overview
66%Possession34%
10Total Shots8
5Corners3
11Fouls14
Shots
10Total Shots8
4On Target3
4Off Target4
2Blocked1
7Inside Box5
3Outside Box3
Passing
66%Possession34%
557Total Passes279
483Accurate Passes208
87%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls14
3Yellow Cards3
2Offsides3

League #203: Galatasaray 2–0 Erzurumspor FK

Galatasaray beat Erzurumspor FK 2-0 in League #203 on February 27, 2021.

Goals: Mostafa Mohamed (38', 45').

Galatasaray controlled possession (66%) and registered 10 shots to 8.

The match was played at Türk Telekom Stadyumu in İstanbul.