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Erzurumspor FK vs Galatasaray — League #203 2026

Erzurumspor FK
Erzurumspor FK
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Galatasaray
Galatasaray
10/24/2020League #203League #203 · Round 6Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Erzurumspor FK23%
×Draw24%
Galatasaray53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erzurumspor FK
1.06
Galatasaray
1.75

Galatasaray creates 65% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 32 away

creates per match

Erzurumspor FK
1.25
Galatasaray
1.88

allows per match

Erzurumspor FK
1.63
Galatasaray
0.88

finishing

Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par
Galatasaray+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzurumspor FK ↓

Galatasaray →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Erzurumspor FK or draw
47%
Erzurumspor FK or Galatasaray
76%
Draw or Galatasaray
77%

Winning margin

Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+
8%
Galatasaray wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals
65%
Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals
29%
Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals
9%
Galatasaray 1+ goals
83%
Galatasaray 2+ goals
52%
Galatasaray 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)
30%
Galatasaray (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzurumspor FK at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Galatasaray away — creates 1.88, concedes 0.88 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzurumspor FK attack 1.25 + Galatasaray defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.06

Galatasaray attack 1.88 + Erzurumspor FK defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Erzurumspor FK scores more
23%
level
24%
Galatasaray scores more
53%

Galatasaray at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Galatasaray will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #203: Erzurumspor FK 1–2 Galatasaray

Galatasaray beat Erzurumspor FK 2-1 in League #203 on October 24, 2020.

The match was played at Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu in Erzurum.