Erzurumspor FK 1–1 Galatasaray: Result & Stats

Erzurumspor FK

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Galatasaray

R. Muhammed 18'

Y. Belhanda 52'

3/3/2019

League #203 · Round 24Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Erzurumspor FK17%

×Draw24%

Galatasaray59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Erzurumspor FKExpected goals in this matchGalatasaray

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.74

1.64

Erzurumspor FK

0.74

Galatasaray

1.64

Galatasaray creates 122% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 32 away

0.60

creates per match

1.88

1.40

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Erzurumspor FK

0.60

Galatasaray

1.88

allows per match

Erzurumspor FK

1.40

Galatasaray

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par

Galatasaray+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzurumspor FK ↓

Galatasaray →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–115%

0–212%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Erzurumspor FK or draw

41%

Erzurumspor FK or Galatasaray

76%

Draw or Galatasaray

83%

Winning margin

Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+

5%

Galatasaray wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals

52%

Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals

17%

Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals

4%

Galatasaray 1+ goals

81%

Galatasaray 2+ goals

49%

Galatasaray 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)

22%

Galatasaray (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzurumspor FK at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Galatasaray away — creates 1.88, concedes 0.88 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzurumspor FK attack 0.60 + Galatasaray defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.74

Galatasaray attack 1.88 + Erzurumspor FK defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Erzurumspor FK scores more

17%

level

24%

Galatasaray scores more

59%

Galatasaray at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Galatasaray will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Y. Belhanda

Galatasaray · M

7.6

Match Events

18'

R. Muhammed↳ E. Başsan

46'

M. Linnes← S. Kaya

52'

Y. Belhanda↳ K. Mitroglou

59'

T. Antalyalı← E. Başsan

69'

M. Diagne← S. İnan

74'

Emre Taşdemir

76'

E. Akbaba← K. Mitroglou

85'

M. Koné← E. Korkmaz

90'

S. Tshabalala← S. Eduok

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ErzurumsporGalatasaray

Overview

46%Possession54%

18Total Shots14

6Corners9

11Fouls11

Shots

18Total Shots14

6On Target4

7Off Target7

5Blocked3

8Inside Box7

10Outside Box7

Passing

46%Possession54%

331Total Passes379

251Accurate Passes288

76%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls11

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

4Offsides1