Galatasaray 1–1 Beşiktaş: Result & Stats

Galatasaray

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Beşiktaş

I. Gundogan 55'

T. Abraham 12'

10/4/2025

League #203 · Round 8Rams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Galatasaray58%

×Draw23%

Beşiktaş20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GalatasarayExpected goals in this matchBeşiktaş

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

0.97

Galatasaray

1.84

Beşiktaş

0.97

Galatasaray creates 90% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 9 away

2.46

creates per match

1.00

0.93

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Galatasaray

2.46

Beşiktaş

1.00

allows per match

Galatasaray

0.93

Beşiktaş

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Galatasaray+0.00on par

Beşiktaş+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galatasaray ↓

Beşiktaş →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Galatasaray or draw

80%

Galatasaray or Beşiktaş

77%

Draw or Beşiktaş

42%

Winning margin

Galatasaray wins by 2+

33%

Beşiktaş wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Galatasaray 1+ goals

84%

Galatasaray 2+ goals

55%

Galatasaray 3+ goals

28%

Beşiktaş 1+ goals

62%

Beşiktaş 2+ goals

25%

Beşiktaş 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Galatasaray (draw refunded)

75%

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galatasaray at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.93 · 28 matches

Beşiktaş away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galatasaray attack 2.46 + Beşiktaş defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.84

Beşiktaş attack 1.00 + Galatasaray defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Galatasaray scores more

58%

level

23%

Beşiktaş scores more

20%

Galatasaray at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Galatasaray will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

I. Gundogan

Galatasaray · M

8.0

Match Events

12'

26'

34'

40'

40'

55'

I. Gundogan↳ L. Torreira

59'

Gökhan Sazdağı

66'

F. Uduokhai← E. Topcu

67'

C. Under← V. Cerny

77'

Gabriel Sara← I. Gundogan

77'

E. Elmali← Y. Akgun

79'

Felix Uduokhai

83'

M. Rashica← T. Abraham

86'

M. Icardi← V. Osimhen

86'

L. Sane← B. A. Yilmaz

86'

K. Kayra Yilmaz← W. Ndidi

90'

Orkun Kökçü

90'

El Bilal Touré

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GalatasarayBeşiktaş

Overview

54%Possession46%

14Total Shots11

1.10Expected Goals (xG)1.61

4Corners8

7Fouls16

Shots

14Total Shots11

2On Target5

10Off Target2

2Blocked4

7Inside Box10

7Outside Box1

Passing

54%Possession46%

376Total Passes325

325Accurate Passes262

86%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

-0.25Goals Prevented-0.25

Discipline

7Fouls16

1Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

2Offsides2

Match Recap: Galatasaray vs Beşiktaş

Galatasaray and Beşiktaş drew 1-1 in League #203 on October 4, 2025.

Goals: T. Abraham (12'), I. Gundogan (55').

Galatasaray controlled possession (54%) and registered 14 shots to 11.

The match was played at Rams Park in Istanbul.

Galatasaray vs Beşiktaş — League #203 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Galatasaray vs Beşiktaş