Galatasaray 2–1 Beşiktaş: Result & Stats

Galatasaray

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Beşiktaş

V. Osimhen 67'

D. Sánchez 13'

E. Muçi 90+4'

10/28/2024

League #203 · Round 10RAMS Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Galatasaray58%

×Draw22%

Beşiktaş20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GalatasarayExpected goals in this matchBeşiktaş

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.05

Galatasaray

1.96

Beşiktaş

1.05

Galatasaray creates 87% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 4 away

2.42

creates per match

1.25

0.85

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Galatasaray

2.42

Beşiktaş

1.25

allows per match

Galatasaray

0.85

Beşiktaş

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Galatasaray+0.00on par

Beşiktaş+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galatasaray ↓

Beşiktaş →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Galatasaray or draw

80%

Galatasaray or Beşiktaş

78%

Draw or Beşiktaş

42%

Winning margin

Galatasaray wins by 2+

35%

Beşiktaş wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Galatasaray 1+ goals

86%

Galatasaray 2+ goals

58%

Galatasaray 3+ goals

31%

Beşiktaş 1+ goals

65%

Beşiktaş 2+ goals

28%

Beşiktaş 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Galatasaray (draw refunded)

75%

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galatasaray at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.85 · 26 matches

Beşiktaş away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galatasaray attack 2.42 + Beşiktaş defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.96

Beşiktaş attack 1.25 + Galatasaray defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Galatasaray scores more

58%

level

22%

Beşiktaş scores more

20%

Galatasaray at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Galatasaray will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

Gabriel Sara

Galatasaray · M

8.3

Match Events

13'

D. Sánchez↳ Gabriel Sara

36'

45+1'

51'

62'

67'

67'

V. Osimhen↳ Gabriel Sara

68'

E. Muçi← João Mário

80'

Lucas Torreira

82'

Emirhan Topçu

82'

D. Mertens← V. Osimhen

83'

K. Demirbay← L. Torreira

85'

T. Sanuç← E. Topçu

85'

O. Bulut← J. Svensson

89'

Ciro Immobile

90+2'

M. Baltacı← B. Yılmaz

90+1'

M. Batshuayi← M. Icardi

90+4'

E. Muçi↳ C. Ndour

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GalatasarayBeşiktaş

Overview

39%Possession61%

20Total Shots8

2.00Expected Goals (xG)0.59

8Corners5

21Fouls13

Shots

20Total Shots8

6On Target2

9Off Target5

5Blocked1

14Inside Box7

6Outside Box1

Passing

39%Possession61%

270Total Passes441

202Accurate Passes350

75%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

0.26Goals Prevented0.26

Discipline

21Fouls13

4Yellow Cards3

1Offsides3