Beşiktaş 0–1 Galatasaray: Result & Stats

Beşiktaş

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Galatasaray

V. Osimhen 39'

3/7/2026

League #203 · Round 25Tupras Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Beşiktaş30%

×Draw26%

Galatasaray44%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeşiktaşExpected goals in this matchGalatasaray

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.45

Beşiktaş

1.16

Galatasaray

1.45

Galatasaray creates 25% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 30 away

1.38

creates per match

1.90

1.00

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Beşiktaş

1.38

Galatasaray

1.90

allows per match

Beşiktaş

1.00

Galatasaray

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beşiktaş+0.00on par

Galatasaray+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beşiktaş ↓

Galatasaray →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Beşiktaş or draw

56%

Beşiktaş or Galatasaray

74%

Draw or Galatasaray

70%

Winning margin

Beşiktaş wins by 2+

12%

Galatasaray wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Beşiktaş 1+ goals

69%

Beşiktaş 2+ goals

32%

Beşiktaş 3+ goals

11%

Galatasaray 1+ goals

77%

Galatasaray 2+ goals

42%

Galatasaray 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)

41%

Galatasaray (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beşiktaş at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Galatasaray away — creates 1.90, concedes 0.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beşiktaş attack 1.38 + Galatasaray defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.16

Galatasaray attack 1.90 + Beşiktaş defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Beşiktaş scores more

30%

level

26%

Galatasaray scores more

44%

Galatasaray at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Galatasaray will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

U. Cakir

Galatasaray · G

8.3

Match Events

6'

28'

29'

31'

39'

61'

Leroy SanéCard upgrade

62'

Leroy Sané

67'

S. Boey← Gabriel Sara

71'

Abdülkerim Bardakcı

72'

C. Under← V. Cerny

72'

M. Hekimoglu← K. Asllani

77'

Mario Lemina

80'

Uğurcan Çakır

81'

E. Elmali← B. A. Yilmaz

82'

84'

89'

90+4'

90+2'

90+3'

K. Ayhan← L. Torreira

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BeşiktaşGalatasaray

Overview

60%Possession40%

24Total Shots12

1.47Expected Goals (xG)1.57

8Corners4

10Fouls15

Shots

24Total Shots12

7On Target4

8Off Target5

9Blocked3

16Inside Box7

8Outside Box5

Passing

60%Possession40%

510Total Passes345

430Accurate Passes267

84%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves7

0.48Goals Prevented0.48

Discipline

10Fouls15

3Yellow Cards7

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1

League #203: Beşiktaş 0–1 Galatasaray

Galatasaray beat Beşiktaş 1-0 in League #203 on March 7, 2026.

Goals: V. Osimhen (39').

Beşiktaş controlled possession (60%) and registered 24 shots to 12.

The match was played at Tupras Stadium in Istanbul.

Beşiktaş vs Galatasaray — League #203 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League #203: Beşiktaş 0–1 Galatasaray