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FYR Macedonia vs Faroe Islands — UEFA Nations League 2018

FYR Macedonia
FYR Macedonia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Faroe Islands
Faroe Islands
B. Miovski 62'
11/17/2024UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · League C - 6Toše Proeski Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

FYR Macedonia61%
×Draw24%
Faroe Islands15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FYR Macedonia
1.64
Faroe Islands
0.66

FYR Macedonia creates 148% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

creates per match

FYR Macedonia
1.92
Faroe Islands
0.64

allows per match

FYR Macedonia
0.67
Faroe Islands
1.36

finishing

FYR Macedonia+0.00on par
Faroe Islands+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FYR Macedonia ↓

Faroe Islands →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FYR Macedonia or draw
85%
FYR Macedonia or Faroe Islands
76%
Draw or Faroe Islands
39%

Winning margin

FYR Macedonia wins by 2+
34%
Faroe Islands wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

FYR Macedonia 1+ goals
81%
FYR Macedonia 2+ goals
49%
FYR Macedonia 3+ goals
23%
Faroe Islands 1+ goals
48%
Faroe Islands 2+ goals
14%
Faroe Islands 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

FYR Macedonia (draw refunded)
81%
Faroe Islands (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FYR Macedonia at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

Faroe Islands away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FYR Macedonia attack 1.92 + Faroe Islands defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.64

Faroe Islands attack 0.64 + FYR Macedonia defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

FYR Macedonia scores more
61%
level
24%
Faroe Islands scores more
15%

FYR Macedonia at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "FYR Macedonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
J. AtanasovFYR MacedoniaFYR Macedonia · M
8.0

Match Events

13'
Isnik Alimi
50'
Petur Knudsen
52'
Enis Bardhi
54'
L. Qamili← D. Churlinov
54'
S. Ashkovski← B. Ilievski
54'
M. Ristovski← A. Trajkovski
58'
R. Joensen← H. Hánsson
62'
B. Miovski
66'
Ezgjan Alioski
72'
Nikola Serafimov
79'
J. Bjartalíð← M. Olsen
79'
P. Klettskarð← P. Knudsen
85'
A. Justinussen← B. Hendriksson
85'
S. Vatnhamar← H. Sørensen
88'
D. Velkovski← B. Miovski
89'
Milan Ristovski
90+3'
D. Babunski← E. Bardhi

Possession

61%FYR

Shots

11FYR

Pass accuracy

53%FYR

Statistics

FYRFaroe
Overview
61%Possession39%
11Total Shots9
2Corners5
7Fouls8
Shots
11Total Shots9
4On Target1
3Off Target2
4Blocked6
3Inside Box3
8Outside Box6
Passing
61%Possession39%
530Total Passes327
432Accurate Passes236
82%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
7Fouls8
5Yellow Cards1
3Offsides0

UEFA Nations League: FYR Macedonia 1–0 Faroe Islands

FYR Macedonia beat Faroe Islands 1-0 in UEFA Nations League on November 17, 2024.

Goals: B. Miovski (62').

FYR Macedonia controlled possession (61%) and registered 11 shots to 9.

The match was played at Toše Proeski Arena in Skopje.