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FYR Macedonia vs Faroe Islands — Friendlies 2026

FYR Macedonia
FYR Macedonia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Faroe Islands
Faroe Islands
Bojan Miovski 81'
3/27/2023FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 2Toše Proeski Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

FYR Macedonia52%
×Draw27%
Faroe Islands21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FYR Macedonia
1.44
Faroe Islands
0.80

FYR Macedonia creates 80% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

creates per match

FYR Macedonia
1.33
Faroe Islands
0.82

allows per match

FYR Macedonia
0.78
Faroe Islands
1.55

finishing

FYR Macedonia+0.00on par
Faroe Islands+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FYR Macedonia ↓

Faroe Islands →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FYR Macedonia or draw
79%
FYR Macedonia or Faroe Islands
73%
Draw or Faroe Islands
48%

Winning margin

FYR Macedonia wins by 2+
26%
Faroe Islands wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FYR Macedonia 1+ goals
76%
FYR Macedonia 2+ goals
42%
FYR Macedonia 3+ goals
18%
Faroe Islands 1+ goals
55%
Faroe Islands 2+ goals
19%
Faroe Islands 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

FYR Macedonia (draw refunded)
71%
Faroe Islands (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FYR Macedonia at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

Faroe Islands away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FYR Macedonia attack 1.33 + Faroe Islands defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.44

Faroe Islands attack 0.82 + FYR Macedonia defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FYR Macedonia scores more
52%
level
27%
Faroe Islands scores more
21%

FYR Macedonia at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FYR Macedonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
Rógvi Baldvinsson
46'
Andrias Edmundsson← Heini Vatnsdal
54'
Bojan Miovski← Ilija Nestorovski
55'
Eljif Elmas← Milan Ristovski
62'
Daniel Johansen← Ári Mohr Jónsson
63'
Gilli Rólantsson← Stefan Radosavljević
70'
Agon Elezi← Jani Atanasov
70'
David Babunski← Valon Ethemi
72'
Odmar Færø← Rógvi Baldvinsson
73'
Noah Mneney← Jákup Biskopstø Andreasen
79'
Stefan Aškovski← Darko Churlinov
79'
Jovan Manev← Darko Velkovski
81'
Bojan Miovski↳ Stefan Aškovski
84'
Klæmint Olsen← René Shaki Joensen
90+4'
Andrias Edmundsson
90'
Pætur Petersen

Possession

55%FYR

Shots

14FYR

Statistics

FYRFaroe
Overview
55%Possession45%
14Total Shots2
2Corners4
3Fouls21
Shots
14Total Shots2
5On Target0
5Off Target2
4Blocked0
Passing
55%Possession45%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
3Fouls21
0Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
10Offsides1

Friendlies: FYR Macedonia 1–0 Faroe Islands

FYR Macedonia beat Faroe Islands 1-0 in Friendlies on March 27, 2023.

Goals: Bojan Miovski (81').

FYR Macedonia controlled possession (55%) and registered 14 shots to 2.

The match was played at Toše Proeski Arena in Skopje.