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Faroe Islands vs FYR Macedonia — UEFA Nations League 2018

Faroe Islands
Faroe Islands
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FYR Macedonia
FYR Macedonia
V. Davidsen 9' (pen)
E. Bardhi 49' (pen)
9/7/2024UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · League C - 1Tórsvøllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Faroe Islands37%
×Draw27%
FYR Macedonia36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Faroe Islands
1.27
FYR Macedonia
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

Faroe Islands
1.55
FYR Macedonia
1.20

allows per match

Faroe Islands
1.27
FYR Macedonia
1.00

finishing

Faroe Islands+0.00on par
FYR Macedonia+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Faroe Islands ↓

FYR Macedonia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Faroe Islands or draw
64%
Faroe Islands or FYR Macedonia
73%
Draw or FYR Macedonia
63%

Winning margin

Faroe Islands wins by 2+
16%
FYR Macedonia wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Faroe Islands 1+ goals
72%
Faroe Islands 2+ goals
36%
Faroe Islands 3+ goals
14%
FYR Macedonia 1+ goals
71%
FYR Macedonia 2+ goals
35%
FYR Macedonia 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Faroe Islands (draw refunded)
51%
FYR Macedonia (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Faroe Islands at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

FYR Macedonia away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Faroe Islands attack 1.55 + FYR Macedonia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.27

FYR Macedonia attack 1.20 + Faroe Islands defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Faroe Islands scores more
37%
level
27%
FYR Macedonia scores more
36%

Faroe Islands at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Faroe Islands will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
A. EdmundssonFaroe IslandsFaroe Islands · D
7.7

Match Events

8'
Ahmed Iljazovski
9'
V. DavidsenPenalty
12'
Samuel Johansen Chukwudi
17'
Nikola Serafimov
45+2'
Jóan Edmundsson
46'
H. Askham← S. Chukwudi
46'
E. Alioski← A. Iljazovski
46'
L. Qamili← D. Mitrovski
49'
E. BardhiPenalty
66'
M. Mikkelsen← R. Joensen
66'
A. Justinussen← J. Edmundsson
77'
M. Ilievski← D. Churlinov
84'
P. Johannesen← M. Olsen
84'
P. Knudsen← S. Vatnhamar
90+3'
Isnik Alimi

Possession

32%Faroe

Shots

11Faroe

Pass accuracy

46%Faroe

Statistics

FaroeFYR
Overview
32%Possession68%
11Total Shots17
4Corners4
16Fouls5
Shots
11Total Shots17
3On Target5
5Off Target5
3Blocked7
9Inside Box8
2Outside Box9
Passing
32%Possession68%
300Total Passes656
213Accurate Passes545
71%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls5
2Yellow Cards3
4Offsides3

Match Recap: Faroe Islands vs FYR Macedonia

Faroe Islands and FYR Macedonia drew 1-1 in UEFA Nations League on September 7, 2024.

Goals: V. Davidsen (9' pen), E. Bardhi (49' pen).

FYR Macedonia controlled possession (68%) and registered 17 shots to 11.

The match was played at Tórsvøllur in Tórshavn, Streymoy.