Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fylkir vs Grindavik — 1. Deild 2026

Fylkir
Fylkir
Preview
14:00
Grindavik
Grindavik
8/22/20261. Deild1. Deild · Round 20
Big match
52%
Fylkir
model favours
52%21%27%

Grindavik score first in only 26% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
70%
over 2.5 goals
68%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Fylkir52%
×Draw21%
Grindavik27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fylkir
2.14
Grindavik
1.48

Fylkir creates 45% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 27 away

creates per match

Fylkir
1.95
Grindavik
1.59

allows per match

Fylkir
1.37
Grindavik
2.33

finishing

Fylkir+0.00on par
Grindavik+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fylkir ↓

Grindavik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Fylkir or draw
73%
Fylkir or Grindavik
79%
Draw or Grindavik
48%

Winning margin

Fylkir wins by 2+
31%
Grindavik wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fylkir 1+ goals
88%
Fylkir 2+ goals
63%
Fylkir 3+ goals
36%
Grindavik 1+ goals
77%
Grindavik 2+ goals
43%
Grindavik 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Fylkir (draw refunded)
66%
Grindavik (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fylkir at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Grindavik away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.33 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fylkir attack 1.95 + Grindavik defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.14

Grindavik attack 1.59 + Fylkir defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Fylkir scores more
52%
level
21%
Grindavik scores more
27%

Fylkir at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Fylkir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Fylkir score first in only 29% of matches
  • 71% of Fylkir’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 22% of Grindavik’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Fylkir
WWLWW
Grindavik
WLDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fylkir vs Grindavik — Match Preview

Fylkir face Grindavik on August 22, 2026 in this 1. Deild fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.