Fulham 6–2 Birmingham: Result & Stats

Fulham

FT

6 – 2

HT: 4 – 1

Birmingham

A. Robinson 90+3'

F. Carvalho 75', 38'

T. Cairney 43'

N. Kebano 35'

M. Roberts 10' (OG)

G. Gardner 74'

I. Šunjić 45'

1/18/2022

Championship · Round 24Craven Cottage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Fulham54%

×Draw23%

Birmingham22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FulhamExpected goals in this matchBirmingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.05

Fulham

1.77

Birmingham

1.05

Fulham creates 69% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 168 away

2.02

creates per match

0.97

1.13

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Fulham

2.02

Birmingham

0.97

allows per match

Fulham

1.13

Birmingham

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fulham+0.00on par

Birmingham+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fulham ↓

Birmingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Fulham or draw

78%

Fulham or Birmingham

77%

Draw or Birmingham

46%

Winning margin

Fulham wins by 2+

30%

Birmingham wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Fulham 1+ goals

83%

Fulham 2+ goals

53%

Fulham 3+ goals

26%

Birmingham 1+ goals

65%

Birmingham 2+ goals

28%

Birmingham 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Fulham (draw refunded)

71%

Birmingham (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fulham at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.51 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fulham attack 2.02 + Birmingham defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.77

Birmingham attack 0.97 + Fulham defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Fulham scores more

54%

level

23%

Birmingham scores more

22%

Fulham at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Fulham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

F. Carvalho

Fulham · M

9.2

Match Events

10'

M. RobertsOwn goal

35'

N. Kebano↳ D. Odoi

38'

F. Carvalho↳ A. Robinson

43'

T. Cairney↳ F. Carvalho

45'

I. Šunjić↳ Jérémie Bela

52'

Kristian Pedersen

64'

S. Hogan← L. Jutkiewicz

64'

G. Friend← M. Roberts

67'

Harrison Reed

68'

B. De Cordova-Reid← N. Kebano

69'

N. Chalobah← T. Cairney

74'

G. Gardner↳ K. Pedersen

75'

F. Carvalho↳ B. De Cordova-Reid

81'

J. Onomah← H. Reed

82'

J. James← O. Hernández

90+3'

A. Robinson↳ J. Onomah

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FulhamBirmingham

Overview

62%Possession38%

15Total Shots14

6Corners5

7Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots14

11On Target6

1Off Target3

3Blocked5

10Inside Box6

5Outside Box8

Passing

62%Possession38%

531Total Passes331

440Accurate Passes243

83%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

7Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2