Birmingham 0–1 Fulham: Result & Stats

Birmingham

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Fulham

A. Mitrović 52'

11/9/2019

Championship · Round 16St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Birmingham29%

×Draw26%

Fulham44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BirminghamExpected goals in this matchFulham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.42

Birmingham

1.10

Fulham

1.42

Fulham creates 29% more chances

Season form · 175 home / 46 away

1.25

creates per match

1.54

1.29

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Birmingham

1.25

Fulham

1.54

allows per match

Birmingham

1.29

Fulham

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Birmingham+0.00on par

Fulham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Fulham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw

56%

Birmingham or Fulham

74%

Draw or Fulham

71%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+

11%

Fulham wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals

67%

Birmingham 2+ goals

30%

Birmingham 3+ goals

10%

Fulham 1+ goals

76%

Fulham 2+ goals

41%

Fulham 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)

40%

Fulham (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 175 matches

Fulham away — creates 1.54, concedes 0.96 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.25 + Fulham defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.10

Fulham attack 1.54 + Birmingham defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Birmingham scores more

29%

level

26%

Fulham scores more

44%

Fulham at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Fulham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

M. Rodák

Fulham · G

8.1

Match Events

35'

C. Christie← M. Le Marchand

45'

Jude Bellingham

45'

Aleksandar Mitrović

52'

A. Mitrović

62'

Jérémie Bela← K. Mrabti

64'

Álvaro Giménez← D. Crowley

66'

J. Onomah← Ivan Cavaleiro

78'

Cyrus Christie

79'

J. Montero← Fran Villalba

81'

A. Kamara← B. Reid

85'

Jake Clarke-Salter

90'

Marc Roberts

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BirminghamFulham

Overview

44%Possession56%

16Total Shots10

5Corners7

12Fouls8

Shots

16Total Shots10

4On Target3

8Off Target3

4Blocked4

10Inside Box6

6Outside Box4

Passing

44%Possession56%

389Total Passes505

280Accurate Passes409

72%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls8

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2