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Fulham vs Birmingham — Championship 2018

Fulham
Fulham
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Birmingham
Birmingham
J. Onomah 90+5'
7/4/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 41Craven Cottage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Fulham54%
×Draw23%
Birmingham22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fulham
1.77
Birmingham
1.05

Fulham creates 69% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 168 away

creates per match

Fulham
2.02
Birmingham
0.97

allows per match

Fulham
1.13
Birmingham
1.51

finishing

Fulham+0.00on par
Birmingham+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fulham ↓

Birmingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Fulham or draw
78%
Fulham or Birmingham
77%
Draw or Birmingham
46%

Winning margin

Fulham wins by 2+
30%
Birmingham wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Fulham 1+ goals
83%
Fulham 2+ goals
53%
Fulham 3+ goals
26%
Birmingham 1+ goals
65%
Birmingham 2+ goals
28%
Birmingham 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Fulham (draw refunded)
71%
Birmingham (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fulham at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.51 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fulham attack 2.02 + Birmingham defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.77

Birmingham attack 0.97 + Fulham defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Fulham scores more
54%
level
23%
Birmingham scores more
22%

Fulham at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Fulham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
T. CairneyFulhamFulham · M
7.6

Match Events

30'
Gary Gardner
32'
Bobby Reid
34'
Denis Odoi
38'
Jude Bellingham
40'
Marc Roberts
46'
J. Bryan← D. Odoi
57'
M. Kieftenbeld← J. Bellingham
60'
J. Onomah← H. Arter
70'
N. Kebano← Ivan Cavaleiro
74'
W. Harding← Jérémie Bela
74'
L. Jutkiewicz← S. Hogan
85'
H. Dean← D. Crowley
87'
S. Jasper← A. Knockaert
90'
Jake Clarke-Salter
90+5'
J. Onomah↳ H. Reed

Possession

77%Fulham

Shots

15Fulham

Pass accuracy

62%Fulham

Statistics

FulhamBirmingham
Overview
77%Possession23%
15Total Shots6
9Corners4
9Fouls18
Shots
15Total Shots6
5On Target2
5Off Target3
5Blocked1
6Inside Box3
9Outside Box3
Passing
77%Possession23%
695Total Passes204
590Accurate Passes109
85%Pass Accuracy53%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls18
2Yellow Cards4
1Offsides4

Match Recap: Fulham vs Birmingham

Fulham beat Birmingham 1-0 in Championship on July 4, 2020.

Goals: J. Onomah (90+5').

Fulham controlled possession (77%) and registered 15 shots to 6.

The match was played at Craven Cottage in London.