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Fuerza Amarilla vs Deportivo Cuenca — Liga Pro 2026

Fuerza Amarilla
Fuerza Amarilla
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Cuenca
Deportivo Cuenca
6/26/2016Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 17Estadio 9 de Mayo (Machala)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Fuerza Amarilla33%
×Draw27%
Deportivo Cuenca41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fuerza Amarilla
1.19
Deportivo Cuenca
1.36

Deportivo Cuenca creates 14% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 131 away

creates per match

Fuerza Amarilla
0.87
Deportivo Cuenca
0.85

allows per match

Fuerza Amarilla
1.87
Deportivo Cuenca
1.50

finishing

Fuerza Amarilla+0.00on par
Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fuerza Amarilla ↓

Deportivo Cuenca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Fuerza Amarilla or draw
59%
Fuerza Amarilla or Deportivo Cuenca
73%
Draw or Deportivo Cuenca
67%

Winning margin

Fuerza Amarilla wins by 2+
14%
Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Fuerza Amarilla 1+ goals
70%
Fuerza Amarilla 2+ goals
33%
Fuerza Amarilla 3+ goals
12%
Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals
74%
Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals
39%
Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Fuerza Amarilla (draw refunded)
45%
Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fuerza Amarilla at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.87 · 23 matches

Deportivo Cuenca away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.50 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fuerza Amarilla attack 0.87 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.19

Deportivo Cuenca attack 0.85 + Fuerza Amarilla defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fuerza Amarilla scores more
33%
level
27%
Deportivo Cuenca scores more
41%

Deportivo Cuenca at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deportivo Cuenca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Fuerza Amarilla 0–0 Deportivo Cuenca

Fuerza Amarilla and Deportivo Cuenca drew 0-0 in Liga Pro on June 26, 2016.

The match was played at Estadio 9 de Mayo (Machala).