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Deportivo Cuenca vs Fuerza Amarilla — Liga Pro 2018

Deportivo Cuenca
Deportivo Cuenca
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Fuerza Amarilla
Fuerza Amarilla
9/28/2019Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 27Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar Banco del Austro (Cuenca)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Deportivo Cuenca66%
×Draw20%
Fuerza Amarilla14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Cuenca
2.11
Fuerza Amarilla
0.87

Deportivo Cuenca creates 143% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 15 away

creates per match

Deportivo Cuenca
1.55
Fuerza Amarilla
0.60

allows per match

Deportivo Cuenca
1.14
Fuerza Amarilla
2.67

finishing

Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par
Fuerza Amarilla+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cuenca ↓

Fuerza Amarilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Deportivo Cuenca or draw
86%
Deportivo Cuenca or Fuerza Amarilla
80%
Draw or Fuerza Amarilla
34%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+
42%
Fuerza Amarilla wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals
88%
Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals
62%
Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals
35%
Fuerza Amarilla 1+ goals
58%
Fuerza Amarilla 2+ goals
22%
Fuerza Amarilla 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)
82%
Fuerza Amarilla (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cuenca at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.14 · 130 matches

Fuerza Amarilla away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.55 + Fuerza Amarilla defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.11

Fuerza Amarilla attack 0.60 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Deportivo Cuenca scores more
66%
level
20%
Fuerza Amarilla scores more
14%

Deportivo Cuenca at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Deportivo Cuenca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Cuenca vs Fuerza Amarilla

Deportivo Cuenca beat Fuerza Amarilla 3-0 in Liga Pro on September 28, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar Banco del Austro (Cuenca).