Fuerza Amarilla 2–2 Deportivo Cuenca

Fuerza Amarilla

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Deportivo Cuenca

5/5/2019

Liga Pro · Round 12Estadio 9 de Mayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Fuerza Amarilla31%

×Draw25%

Deportivo Cuenca44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fuerza AmarillaExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Cuenca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.56

Fuerza Amarilla

1.25

Deportivo Cuenca

1.56

Deportivo Cuenca creates 25% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 131 away

1.00

creates per match

0.85

2.27

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Fuerza Amarilla

1.00

Deportivo Cuenca

0.85

allows per match

Fuerza Amarilla

2.27

Deportivo Cuenca

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fuerza Amarilla+0.00on par

Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fuerza Amarilla ↓

Deportivo Cuenca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Fuerza Amarilla or draw

56%

Fuerza Amarilla or Deportivo Cuenca

75%

Draw or Deportivo Cuenca

69%

Winning margin

Fuerza Amarilla wins by 2+

13%

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Fuerza Amarilla 1+ goals

71%

Fuerza Amarilla 2+ goals

36%

Fuerza Amarilla 3+ goals

13%

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals

79%

Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals

46%

Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Fuerza Amarilla (draw refunded)

41%

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fuerza Amarilla at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

Deportivo Cuenca away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.50 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fuerza Amarilla attack 1.00 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Deportivo Cuenca attack 0.85 + Fuerza Amarilla defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Fuerza Amarilla scores more

31%

level

25%

Deportivo Cuenca scores more

44%

Deportivo Cuenca at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Deportivo Cuenca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff