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FSV Mainz 05 vs Holstein Kiel — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 05
Preview
13:00
Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel
7/25/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies
51%
FSV Mainz 05
model favours
51%23%27%

Even after scoring first, FSV Mainz 05 win only 44%

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
62%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FSV Mainz 0551%
×Draw23%
Holstein Kiel27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FSV Mainz 05
1.88
Holstein Kiel
1.31

FSV Mainz 05 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

FSV Mainz 05
2.00
Holstein Kiel
1.63

allows per match

FSV Mainz 05
1.00
Holstein Kiel
1.75

finishing

FSV Mainz 05+0.00on par
Holstein Kiel+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FSV Mainz 05 ↓

Holstein Kiel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

FSV Mainz 05 or draw
73%
FSV Mainz 05 or Holstein Kiel
77%
Draw or Holstein Kiel
49%

Winning margin

FSV Mainz 05 wins by 2+
28%
Holstein Kiel wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FSV Mainz 05 1+ goals
85%
FSV Mainz 05 2+ goals
56%
FSV Mainz 05 3+ goals
29%
Holstein Kiel 1+ goals
73%
Holstein Kiel 2+ goals
38%
Holstein Kiel 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FSV Mainz 05 (draw refunded)
65%
Holstein Kiel (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FSV Mainz 05 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Holstein Kiel away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FSV Mainz 05 attack 2.00 + Holstein Kiel defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Holstein Kiel attack 1.63 + FSV Mainz 05 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FSV Mainz 05 scores more
51%
level
23%
Holstein Kiel scores more
27%

FSV Mainz 05 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FSV Mainz 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
05
WWWWL
Kiel
DWWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FSV Mainz 05 face Holstein Kiel (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with FSV Mainz 05 hosting Holstein Kiel. Match starts July 25, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.