Frosinone 3–1 Cesena: Result & Stats | Serie B

Frosinone

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cesena

F. Ghedjemis 56'

A. Raimondo 52', 47'

R. Ciervo 76'

9/30/2025

Serie B · Round 6Stadio Benito Stirpe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Frosinone51%

×Draw25%

Cesena24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FrosinoneExpected goals in this matchCesena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.98

Frosinone

1.56

Cesena

0.98

Frosinone creates 59% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 45 away

1.55

creates per match

1.00

0.97

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Frosinone

1.55

Cesena

1.00

allows per match

Frosinone

0.97

Cesena

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Frosinone+0.00on par

Cesena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone ↓

Cesena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Frosinone or draw

76%

Frosinone or Cesena

75%

Draw or Cesena

49%

Winning margin

Frosinone wins by 2+

26%

Cesena wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Frosinone 1+ goals

79%

Frosinone 2+ goals

46%

Frosinone 3+ goals

21%

Cesena 1+ goals

62%

Cesena 2+ goals

26%

Cesena 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Frosinone (draw refunded)

68%

Cesena (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.97 · 115 matches

Cesena away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone attack 1.55 + Cesena defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.56

Cesena attack 1.00 + Frosinone defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Frosinone scores more

51%

level

25%

Cesena scores more

24%

Frosinone at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

G. Calo

Frosinone · M

8.3

Match Events

47'

A. Raimondo

52'

A. Raimondo↳ G. Calo

56'

F. Ghedjemis↳ B. L. Kone

57'

V. Magni← S. Balde

57'

M. Olivieri← A. Ciofi

62'

Giorgi Kvernadze

66'

M. Cichella← F. Ghedjemis

66'

E. Vergani← A. Raimondo

66'

G. Frabotta← D. Bisoli

67'

T. Berti← S. Bastoni

70'

C. Shpendi← J. Blesa

73'

M. Zilli← I. Koutsoupias

76'

R. Ciervo↳ C. Shpendi

85'

Emanuele Adamo

88'

Lorenzo Palmisani

90+5'

A. Ndow← B. L. Kone

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FrosinoneCesena

Overview

43%Possession57%

17Total Shots11

7Corners3

13Fouls20

Shots

17Total Shots11

7On Target2

5Off Target6

5Blocked3

11Inside Box11

6Outside Box0

Passing

43%Possession57%

322Total Passes430

246Accurate Passes352

76%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls20

1Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

Serie B: Frosinone 3–1 Cesena

Frosinone beat Cesena 3-1 in Serie B on September 30, 2025.

Goals: A. Raimondo (47', 52'), F. Ghedjemis (56'), R. Ciervo (76').

Cesena controlled possession (57%) and registered 11 shots to 17.

The match was played at Stadio Benito Stirpe in Frosinone.

Frosinone vs Cesena — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Frosinone 3–1 Cesena