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Cesena vs Frosinone — Serie B 2018

Cesena
Cesena
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Frosinone
Frosinone
D. Šarić 45+3'
G. Ambrosino 71'
4/13/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 33Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Cesena46%
×Draw23%
Frosinone32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cesena
1.85
Frosinone
1.52

Cesena creates 22% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Cesena
1.75
Frosinone
1.83

allows per match

Cesena
1.22
Frosinone
1.95

finishing

Cesena-0.42scores less
Frosinone+0.34scores more

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesena ↓

Frosinone →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Cesena or draw
68%
Cesena or Frosinone
77%
Draw or Frosinone
54%

Winning margin

Cesena wins by 2+
25%
Frosinone wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Cesena 1+ goals
84%
Cesena 2+ goals
55%
Cesena 3+ goals
28%
Frosinone 1+ goals
78%
Frosinone 2+ goals
45%
Frosinone 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Cesena (draw refunded)
59%
Frosinone (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesena at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.22 · 6 matches

Frosinone away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.95 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesena attack 1.75 + Frosinone defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.85

Frosinone attack 1.83 + Cesena defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cesena scores more
46%
level
23%
Frosinone scores more
32%

Cesena at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cesena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
G. PrestiaCesenaCesena · D
8.3

Match Events

16'
G. Cittadini← P. Szymiński
30'
Giorgio Cittadini
45+3'
D. Šarić↳ G. Prestia
46'
G. Ambrosino← E. Pecorino
46'
F. Lucioni← B. Kone
54'
C. Shpendi← T. Berti
62'
Fabio Lucioni
65'
A. Partipilo← F. Ghedjemis
69'
L. Mendicino← D. Šarić
70'
E. Adamo← E. Tavşan
71'
G. Ambrosino↳ G. Kvernadze
77'
S. Bastoni← M. Antonucci
77'
D. Donnarumma← R. Celia
77'
G. Bracaglia← J. Oyono

Possession

46%Cesena

Shots

8Cesena

Pass accuracy

49%Cesena

Statistics

CesenaFrosinone
Overview
46%Possession54%
8Total Shots10
6Corners5
15Fouls12
Shots
8Total Shots10
2On Target2
5Off Target5
1Blocked3
6Inside Box6
2Outside Box4
Passing
46%Possession54%
370Total Passes443
315Accurate Passes385
85%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
15Fouls12
0Yellow Cards2
3Offsides1

Serie B: Cesena 1–1 Frosinone

Cesena and Frosinone drew 1-1 in Serie B on April 13, 2025.

Goals: D. Šarić (45+3'), G. Ambrosino (71').

Frosinone controlled possession (54%) and registered 10 shots to 8.

The match was played at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi in Cesena.